It’s a weird feeling watching the games live. You know I’m a fan of certain teams, but I’m also a fan of just plain old good football. If there’s two teams slugging it out and competing at a high level, I’m going to watch it no matter who the two teams are.

And I like to think I have some idea of what good football looks like. People like to hold on to cliches like “defense wins championships” or “you have to be able to run the ball to win in January.” But there are lots of ways to win in this league. Not every team is going to play the same way, or build their team to play the same style as everyone else. It’s what makes the league so great. Not only are fans regional, cheering for their home team, but there are fans of style, cheering the high flying offense or the rugged defense.

But back to that weird feeling. When you watch enough football you start to have expectations of what you are going to see. It’s like looking at a bowl of chocolate ice cream. I know what that’s supposed to taste like, because I’ve had chocolate ice cream before (many, many times). So Sunday mornings I start watching these games, and seeing these teams that I’ve seen before, and I expect to see certain things. But then, it changes. Teams that were prolific passers last week, run the ball this week. Good defenses can’t stop anyone. Bad defenses find a way to shut down the good offenses. That chocolate ice cream I expected turned out to be raisin.

So, I guess that’s why I do this column. Yeah it’s there to keep me accountable to you, the reader. But it’s also a reminder to me that no matter how much I think I know, the game changes every week. We can only hope that our favorite teams find ways to change in ways that make them better and find wins.

Ok, on with it. This week I went 9-5 with my picks. There are two Monday night games this week, and I have Buffalo over Jacksonville and Cincinnati over Washington. Overall for the season I am 28-18 on my picks. So here’s the other hits and misses I had for Week 3:

Hit

Bo Nix. I’ve been saying that he’s the only rookie quarterback that’s been running a full professional offense. Sunday it was clear that he’s quickly learning how to be a professional quarterback in this league. People were wondering if Baker Mayfield might be an early MVP candidate before Sunday’s game. Bo Nix looked like the better quarterback, at least for one day.

Miss

Eagles defense. This felt like a huge mismatch going into Sunday – New Orleans’ high flying offense against what had been a lackluster defense from Philadelphia. But the defense stepped up and managed to dominate the line of scrimmage. They were getting Kamara in the backfield and putting pressure on Carr all day long.

Hit

Derek Carr. See above. Under pressure, he’s a below average quarterback, and it showed against the Eagles.

Miss

New England toughness. I was banging the drum for a more energetic and more physical brand of football under new coach Mayo. Instead, they rewarded me with a dud on Thursday night and looked like the team we expected during the preseason.

Hit

Detroit running the football. It should be clear by now that Goff is not a quarterback who can be relied on to carry the offense. When Detroit runs the ball, they win.

Miss

Ugh, the Raiders. I mean didn’t we all see this coming? How often have they laid an egg, at home, after a big win? How often have they won a game they shouldn’t and then forgot to show up the following week? Disappointing doesn’t begin to describe it.

Hit

Chargers toughness. They might have a tough guy coach. They might have a tough guy philosophy. But Sunday they played an actual tough guy team – and they got exposed for who they really are. Injuries to Bosa and Herbert are going to hurt. Just like they have in years past.

Miss

You know what, I’m not done with the Raiders yet. I thought in the offseason bringing in Luke Getsy could be the right fit for what these Raiders are trying to be. But the play-calling early in the game just made no sense at all. Where are the two tight end sets? The power running game? The ball control offense? Pierce has good reason to start questioning what’s going on with the offense.

Hit

Minnesota. Is this the most complete team in football right now? Brian Flores has this defense playing at an incredibly high level. Darnold is efficient, Jefferson gives them big play potential and the running game has been solid. But for those non-believers out there think about this – Addison and Hockenson are injured. Think about how dangerous this offense can be when it gets to full strength.

There we go, another week in the books. Just a quick note for everyone, there won’t be a Tale of the Tape for Week 3. But I will add some extra detail and flavor to the Gridiron Preview to make up for it. Tale of the Tape will return for Week 4.

That’s it, let me know in the comments if there are other areas where you think I might have hit or miss on my predictions!