Week five is in the books and what did we learn? Offenses are starting to come together and look pretty good. Without much preseason practice time, a lot of these teams needed a few weeks to get “game ready” with their timing and chemistry.
The other thing we saw was a crazy number of defense/special teams touchdowns – pick sixes, fumble returns, and even blocked kicks. This was a week of big plays on offense too. Early on, we were seeing teams kick field goals at a dizzying rate rather than going for it on fourth down in plus territory. Now we are starting to see teams more aggressive on fourth down.
I think the other thing I’m noticing is that play calling matters. Whether it’s on offense or defense, teams that are calling conservative game plans are not playing winning football. I’m not looking for Jerry Glanville levels of aggressiveness (look it up if that’s too old a reference), but teams need to keep playing hard throughout the game. Going conservative, playing prevent defense? Teams are losing games late by trying not to lose.
On to the games:
TB at NO
Kirk Cousins had himself a game. Lots of completions, lots of yards, and the offense managed to score lots of points. But Tampa Bay missed a couple of interception chances where the ball hit the defender in the hands and that could have drastically changed the outcome of this game. Atlanta was running the ball against stacked lines and throwing into coverage defenses. A lot of the passes were contested catches, and the wide receivers did a good job of helping Cousins out. If they could figure out how to run the ball against the four man fronts, the offense might be more efficient.
Tampa Bay had a couple of bad breaks in this game. The fumble by Irving was a bad break. The setting of the football on the last play of regulation was another. The offense can’t set the ball on the field. The ref running by and touching it wasn’t legal. The clock should have run out. This is going to be a great rematch later this year!
NYJ at MIN
Minnesota has an offense problem. Two games in a row they have built a huge early lead and then let their opponent get back into the game. They are fortunate to be undefeated at this point, because they could have easily lost the past two games. Sam Darnold wanted to throw deep in this game – so much so that he was passing up underneath completions that would have sustained drives. Losing Jones early in the game also hurt their play calling balance. It is possible that even after all the accolades the offense has gotten, it’s actually the defense that is the strength of this team.
Aaron Rodgers played an awful game. He constantly gets a pass, but he was inaccurate and forced throws into coverage. On the pick six, he clearly didn’t read the defense, even though Minnesota had been using that zone blitz scheme fairly consistently. It’s also concerning how few carries Breece Hall is getting. Rodgers generally has the authority to change the play at the line of scrimmage. He’s also been known to change plays to favor his stats, or his ability to make plays rather than following a script. The Jets might be stuck here though, because who on the coaching staff has the authority to tell Rodgers what plays to run on the field?
CAR at CHI
The Carolina defense is not good. The defensive line struggles to get pressure on the quarterback and the secondary can’t cover anyone. On offense, the Andy Dalton honeymoon is over. He made them relevant, but that was more about how bad Bryce Young had been playing. The receivers in this game looked like they had given up on Dalton. Some of his throws were leading his receivers into big hits – and they noticed.
It was a good day for the Chicago offense. The emergence of Swift in the run game has really helped open things up in the passing game. Williams is still holding the ball too long in the pocket, but he’s finally getting the ball down the field. The defense is soft up the middle, and I think teams are going to expose that more as they play higher caliber competition.
BAL at CIN
Cincinnati looks like a team that just plays to the level of the competition. Bad team, play bad. Good team, play great. That shows a lack of coaching and team leadership. Who is calling these guys out in the locker room? The team that played on Sunday should not be 1-4, but here they are. If they can’t figure out how to keep up this standard of football when they play lesser teams, then they deserve the wholesale changes an offseason after a 6-11 season dictates.
Baltimore got sucked in to a shootout and got away from their identity. The good news is that they escaped with a win, the bad news is that they are going to try and keep playing like this even though it doesn’t suit their personnel. I’m nervous about their defense. They are breaking down and playing poorly late in games. Without a ball control offense, this defense is going to keep getting exposed.
MIA at NE
Miami figured out their run game and that carried them to a much needed victory. Defensively, they had no respect for the Patriots passing game and consistently played with five and six man fronts. This was not a win that fans can feel good about. This is still a bad offense until Tua comes back.
New England’s best player is probably Rhamondre Stevenson, so benching him for his fumbling problem is a horrible catch-22. It only lasted for a series, because they simply could not move the ball with him on the sideline. Jacoby Brissett needs a survival bonus. Because if he keeps getting hit like this, there’s no way he’s going to play all seventeen games this year.
CLE at WAS
Watson needs a week on the bench. He’s forcing the ball to Amari Cooper, and the passes are so bad, even Cooper is rolling his eyes when the ball falls to the ground. Watson is also struggling in the pocket. He’s feeling pressure that isn’t there and letting the plays break down to early. The defense is doing a great job of getting off their blocks, but they can’t tackle. Too many hits and arm tackles and not enough wrapping up.
Daniels faced a bit of adversity in the first quarter. He was getting hit, he got sacked, and he wasn’t able to escape the pocket. But then he rolled right and hit McLaurin on a deep scramble drill and everything fell into place. A big play by Ekeler, a long scramble by Daniels, and another deep throw down the sideline and the route was on. The Commanders offense is so smooth right now.
IND at JAX
Joe Flacco showed why he’s such a valuable backup quarterback. He was fantastic early with precision passing and distributing the ball to multiple receivers. But then his lack of athleticism showed up and he wasn’t able to keep the ball moving when the Jaguar defense started getting pressure on him. His late flurry of deep passes got them back in the game, but it was too little too late. If the Colts had been healthier going into this game, they likely would have been able to escape with the win.
Trevor Lawrence finally found the touch on his deep ball and it was the difference in their offensive output. Finally, the running game had room to maneuver. The crossing routes were open. And Bigsby showed why he needs to be the starting running back going forward. The problem for Jacksonville was their fourth quarter defense. They didn’t respect Flacco’s arm and he burned them three times in a row with big plays downfield. The defense almost wasted Lawrence’s best game in years.
BUF at HOU
The most important stat coming out of this game was Josh Allen’s completion percentage. It was an awful showing. Allen was inaccurate, sure, but he also suffered several drops by his receivers. He still almost salvaged the day for them behind a dominant defensive performance in the second half. This was a game where you expected Allen to make a big run and seal the victory, instead he kept throwing it into the dirt and let Houston get the final play.
Houston has struggled without Joe Mixon, but now if Nico Collins is out for a while there could be trouble on offense. They were up 14-3 when he went out, and the offense never really got in synch after. Defensively, they played coverage most of the game and forced the Bills to keep the ball on the ground. They frustrated Allen all day and kept his damage to a minimum. It was a great defensive gameplan that almost fell apart with two late CJ Stroud turnovers.
LV at DEN
The pick six completely changed this game. Instead of a 17-3 lead, the Raiders found themselves tied at 10-10 and they never recovered. The offensive line that was pushing Denver around in the first quarter, couldn’t stay on their blocks the rest of the game. The defense stayed tight until the middle of the third quarter before they started getting winded. After that, Denver just moved the ball at will. Minshew made the critical mistakes that lost the game, but I don’t know that O’Connell has showed that he can make the winning plays. The Raiders are in real trouble here.
Denver did a good job of being patient in this game. They never got flustered, and stuck with their gameplan. As soon as the Raiders started to self destruct, the Broncos sat back and watched it happen. The score turned in to a blowout, but the Broncos didn’t do much to create those scores. They simply let the Raiders lose the game.
ARI at SF
Calling your shot, from the forty yard line, in the first quarter, could have ended badly for Kyler if they ended up losing the game. Instead it turned into a highlight moment in a game they shocked the world. The defense stepped up and forced multiple turnovers to stifle 49er scoring drives. And Connor’s power running up the middle took the heart out of the 49er defense. This is a win Arizona can build on.
I was extremely hard on the NY Giants in week two when they lost to the Commanders because they couldn’t kick extra points and field goals when their kicker got injured. Shanahan deserves some blame as well for not having a backup option. But it was the late game turnovers that lost the game for San Francisco not their ability to kick. Where was Fred Warner when Connor was tearing up the defense? Where was Aiyuk after he got his 100 yard receiving? It felt like this team put it on cruise control in the second half and it cost them the game.
GB at LAR
Of all the pick sixes this week, Jordan Love’s was probably the worst. It was the classic “don’t make a bad situation worse” scenario. It’s also proof that, for better or worse, Love is more Favre than Rodgers. I think that’s going to be a good thing for this team. They need the freewheeling gunslinger to push the ball down the field and take chances. Offensively, this team is still trying to figure themselves out. They had success running the ball with Willis, and are still trying to find balance now that Love is back. This was a quality win, even if it was ugly.
I think the Rams miss Aaron Donald more than they miss Cooper and Nakua. There were a couple moments in this game where the defense needed to make a big play and there just wasn’t anyone who could step up and deliver. Green Bay played keep away in the second half, chewing up time and yards. There’s no juice with the current receivers on the field, but Stafford is doing his best to make them look competent. This season is getting away from them, but last year they made a late season run and they could do it again if they ever get healthy.
NYG at SEA
Wait, is the Giants’ defense good? They were getting consistent pressure on Geno Smith, and they shut down the Seahawk running game. Other than the week one game against Minnesota, these Giants have been in every game and the defense seems to be the reason. On offense, Daniel Jones exploited the same soft coverage that Seattle used in Detroit. They were able to dominate time of possession with a dink and dunk approach to the passing game. It took an amazing special teams play at the end of the game to seal the win, but overall they looked like the better team.
The Seattle offense is being held back by Geno Smith. His story, especially how his career started, makes people see something more than is really there. Instead of a good quarterback, he’s about average. He makes a few plays that give you hope, but mostly his throws are late or inaccurate and his receivers tend to have to make great plays to get the ball. With the weapons on this team, the offense should be much more explosive. Defensively, Seattle needs to figure out how to fix their secondary. Too many receivers are running wide open.
DAL at PIT
Dak took a while to get his feet under him in this game, but he distributed the ball well and had a game winning touchdown drive. But the main difference in this game was their ability to show off a respectable run game behind Rico Dowdle. Dak and this offense will have more success this year if they can keep the play calling balanced with a decent run game. Defensively, they were able to shut down the Steelers run game even with all the injuries to their front line. This was a character building win for Dallas.
The question going into the game was how Dallas was going to stop the Pittsburgh running game with all the injuries they had on defense. Maybe it should have been how will Pittsburgh run the ball with all the injuries to their running backs. Because the running game was awful Sunday night. Justin Fields looked a lot like the quarterback he was back in Chicago – a couple dazzling plays but no winning plays. The Steelers are fading fast, the defense is struggling against the run and the offense isn’t getting much out of the passing game. Will Russell Wilson give the offense a boost?
NO at KC
Derek Carr forgot that he’s playing for the Saints and not the Raiders last night. All the ghosts from those losses at Arrowhead haunted him again as he threw deep ball after deep ball into coverage. The offense looked disjointed all night and couldn’t get anything consistently going. This is a good team that doesn’t really do anything great. Until they find their identity they’ll be competitive but not on the winning side of things.
Can JuJu Smith-Schuster be the featured wide receiver for this offense now that Rashee Rice is out? Can Kareem Hunt be the lead back while Pacheco is out? These were the questions that needed to be answered, and, at least for this week, the answer is yes. The defense shut down the Saints running game and forced Derek Carr to win the game with his arm. Andy Reid is going to keep experimenting with lineups and play calls to find his best offense. This really feels like last year where the Chiefs struggle early and then figure it out at the end of the season. The only difference is, this year they are winning games while they figure it out. That should scare the rest of the AFC.