What excites me about week twelve?

That was the question I kept asking myself as I was constructing this week’s post. We have a few games that look fantastic on the schedule. The rookie quarterbacks have a great chance to again prove themselves. Rivalries are renewed. Anticipation is building, who is going to make a run for the playoffs? Who is going to falter?

But the thing is, that’s true for most weeks. It’s not unique to this slate of games. So again, what makes this week unique?

And I go back to a quote that’s credited to Bill Parcells. But has been repeated by many. He was talking about how the season doesn’t really start until Thanksgiving, and then the famous part, “You are what your record says you are.” So really what excites me about this week is that every team gets one last chance to prove who they are this season.

If you believe the Parcells theory – and I do.

Teams that have a losing record in the first two thirds of the season don’t magically become Super Bowl contenders after Thanksgiving. Mediocre teams stay mediocre. Good teams, with good records, make the playoffs. It might seem determinist, saying the teams are locked into their roles at this point in the season. But that’s not the point of the theory at all. Let’s look at a couple of examples:

Cincinnati is enormously talented. They should be a playoff team. But for whatever reason, they haven’t been able to put together a string of wins. The defense doesn’t show up some days. At this point, we could continue to say they are a good team and should be in the playoffs, or we can admit what our eyes see and realize that for this year at least, they aren’t a good team.

San Francisco is another team that has talent and potential. But they are a .500 club. They could put things together and go on a run of wins. But the problems that have plagued them all season – red zone offense, injuries, turnovers – aren’t going away.

Minnesota and Washington have very good records – beyond the preseason expectations. Are they the most talented teams? No. But they have tapped into something, team chemistry maybe, an easier schedule? Whatever it is, they’ve built a winning culture for this season. Even if they falter a little down the stretch, they are still going to finish the season with a winning record.

The overall point is, by this time of the year, we have a good idea what each team represents this year. The wins and losses aren’t locked in, but who the team is, the problems and the successes they have shown are what we can count on going forward.

So back to the original question – what excites me about week twelve? We get to watch these teams, and see if any of them can break out of the Parcells rule and change their fortune.

Stories I’m Following

Two coaching rumors I heard this week that I’m not thrilled about if they are true.

The first is that Tom Brady is pushing for the Raiders to make a change at coach from Antonio Pierce to Mike Vrabel this offseason. This has the feel of something that would be true. It seems like Patriots stick together and continue to have an overblown sense of the quality of their former teammates. We’ve done the Patriots way once before, that was enough. Besides that, what exactly does Vrabel bring that is different from Antonio Pierce – both guys are former linebackers, high energy, culture builders. They both lack offensive mindsets and the ability to develop quarterbacks. To be fair, I’m not advocating the Raiders keep Pierce. But if they are going to move on, there are better coaching prospects than Vrabel.

The second is the imminent return of Bill Belicheck. The rumors are Jacksonville. But that is a total rebuild and I can’t imagine someone at his age is looking for a five to seven year project. Belicheck is a good coach, he’s a bad personnel guy. Coming back to the NFL can only diminish his legacy.

Oh and a bonus rumor, Deion Sanders to Dallas? Crazy enough to be true. But also crazy enough to work.

Week in Review

• Brock Bowers should be getting more rookie of the year love
• So should Bo Nix
• Eberflus sending tape to the NFL is the equivalent of the kid on the playground yelling about telling his mom when he loses
• Zac Taylor on the sideline looks like he belongs in front of Nakatomi Tower telling the SWAT team to “Send in the car”
• Derrick Henry fumbled, which is bad. Losing focus and being irrelevant the rest of the game was worse
• Geno Smith with a bigtime run to win the game
• Anthony Richardson with a bigtime run to win the game
• Josh Allen with a bigtime run to win the game
• Taysom Hill with runs, returns, passes, catches
• What has happened to the Quarterback position?
• Years later we’ll look back on this season and wonder how Joe Burrow managed to be on a team with these stats and no wins
• Jacksonville players are pissed that on their bye week they had to go on vacation in Detroit
• Are the Giants making a quarterback change because they want to win games or lose them?
• What new drama with the Jets provide us this week

Power Rankings

Who is playing the best football right now? Last week rank in parenthesis ()

10. Los Angeles Chargers (12)
    I might be a little late to this party, but the Chargers have burned us all many times before with a late season slump. This team feels different, and I’m ready to see them as a top team in the AFC this year.
11. Arizona (10)
    The bye week came at a perfect time for the Cardinals. They are in a great position to push for the division title.
12. Green Bay (9)
    Maybe one of the most frustrating teams in the top ten. So much unrealized potential. I need the receivers to step up their game this week. Prove to me this is an offense I can trust down the stretch.
13. Minnesota (8)
    As much as it feels like this team has slipped, their only two losses are a two point loss to the Lions and a loss to the Rams on a Thursday night.
14. Baltimore (4)
    Top five offense, bottom five defense. Maybe not exactly, but it sure feels like it.
15. Kansas City (3)
    Would this team have a winning record with any other quarterback than Patrick Mahomes?
16. Pittsburgh (6)
    The back half of their schedule is filled with division games. So they can win the division easily or lose it spectacularly.
17. Philadelphia (5)
    It’s a good thing they are in the NFC East because the rest of their remaining schedule is pretty rough.
18. Buffalo (2)
    Can James Cook deliver Josh Allen a Super Bowl berth?
19. Detroit (1)
    The problem with an offense full of superstars is trying to decide who is going to win the end of season awards.

MVP Watch

Who are the players making the best case for the MVP award this year?

5. Baker Mayfield – this won’t seem so shocking when the Buccaneers make the playoffs
6. Jared Goff – there’s something to be said for being the most efficient quarterback in the league
7. Saquon Barkley – running and receiving dual threat on a team that is looking like a Super Bowl contender
8. Lamar Jackson – stats are great, but wins and losses matter in this voting
9. Josh Allen – I promised the top spot if he beat the Chiefs, and boy did he deliver!

Weekly Predictions

Next week’s games, who’s going to win and why?

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Is there a let down for Pittsburgh after their big game against Baltimore and playing on a short week? Yeah probably. But Cleveland has been playing so poorly that even with a slow start, the Steelers should still be able to pull this game out. I expect the Steelers defense to put up a big game, five sacks and three or more turnovers. PIT 27 – CLE 13

Minnesota at Chicago
Chicago’s offense showed improvement against Green Bay. Caleb Williams looked comfortable in the pocket and scrambled for quality yards. That said, they still struggled to score points. Flores’ defense has been dominant against lesser quarterbacks. If the Minnesota offense can protect the ball, the defense should deliver a close win. MIN 24 – CHI 20

Detroit at Indianapolis
Can the Colts stand up to the steamroller that is the Lions’ offense? Anthony Richardson struggles with consistency, but when he’s good, he’s really good. The running game for the Colts might be good enough to play a ball control/keep away style of game. But if Detroit can get a couple score lead, this game will get away from the Colts fast. DET 38 – IND 23

New England at Miami
Miami is playing with confidence again. Pair that with the mathematical chance of still making the playoffs, and they are actually playing for more than pride down in South Florida. Drake Maye has elevated the Patriots from the very bottom of the league this year, but the team still needs help before they are a consistent winner. MIA 22 – NE 17

Tampa Bay at New York Giants
The Giants are ready to switch things up to try and get their offense unstuck. Will Tommy DeVito be the answer for them? No. Will he give them a boost? Absolutely, well for at least a quarter and a half. Then the crushing reality that this is not a good team will sink in. The Buccaneers are ready to storm through the remainder of their season and push for a division title. Look for them to be very focused on getting a quick start in this game. TB 31 – NYG 20

Dallas at Washington
Two teams that are struggling on offense right now. Jayden Daniels might still be suffering the effects from his rib injury, or he’s simply struggling late in the season. He is far from the first rookie to hit the wall. The Cowboys are dealing with more than just injuries and bad play calling. The coach/player/owner dynamic in Dallas has become toxic. I don’t know if this Cowboys team even wants to win any more games. WAS 27 – DAL 16

Kansas City at Carolina
Is this a get back game for Kansas City or one of those crazy losses that happens in every season? I would love to think the Chiefs are overlooking this Panthers team. But there is so much scrutiny on this team that I just can’t see them getting beaten here. If the Panthers are able to get Chuba Hubbard going, they could make it interesting though. KC 24 – CAR 13

Tennessee at Houston
Will Levis continues to show flashes on the field. It feels like there is a lot of talent there, but something is just missing. The defense has continued to play well, but they haven’t been as dominant lately. Maybe the realization that the season is lost has started to sink in. Houston’s offense finally looked like it was back on track Sunday night. This is the right time of the year to be getting healthy again, and this is another great opportunity for Houston to work Nico Collins back into the offense. HOU 30 – TEN 17

San Francisco at Green Bay
Why would the 49ers announce to the world that Brock Purdy has a sore throwing shoulder? It’s not an injury, there’s no reason to talk about it, and it was before any official injury report was due. Maybe it’s nothing, but I haven’t heard any other teams announce their quarterback has a sore arm. This is a bad matchup if Purdy can’t go, or if he’s not throwing hard. The Packers are excellent at creating turnovers and getting interceptions. Home field advantage helps too. GB 27 – SF 20

Arizona at Seattle
The NFC West could clear up or get really muddy depending on this game. If Arizona wins they will be 3-0 in the division and well situated. If Seattle wins the entire division would be a game within .500 and all bets are off on who has the momentum down the stretch. I think Arizona is the better team, and are coming off a bye. Seattle just had a very emotional and physical game in San Francisco and might still be feeling the effects of that. ARI 23 – SEA 20

Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams need this win in a bad way. They are trailing in the division and trailing by a lot in the wild card race. They have talent everywhere, but for some reason haven’t been able to string together wins. Part of that is the injuries, but it’s continued since Nacua and Kupp have returned to the lineup. Can they compete with Philadelphia’s defense? Can their young defensive line get after Jalen Hurts or stop Saquon Barkley? Unfortunately, I think the answer is no. This is going to be an extremely entertaining and close matchup, but the Eagles will get the win. PHI 29 – LAR 27

Baltimore at Los Angeles Chargers
This game could decide playoff seeding between both of these teams. They each look like they are heading for a wild card berth. This is a bad matchup for the Chargers. The Ravens are coming off a close loss in Pittsburgh and are ready to explode offensively. Can the Chargers keep up? We’ll see. I have new respect for this Chargers team after they managed to close out the game against the Bengals last week. I don’t know if they can do it twice. BAL 31 – LAC 22

Game of the week:

Denver at Las Vegas
Ok, ok, ok, I know this isn’t game of the week worthy. Yes, my own bias is winning out here. But hear me out – this might be the last game the Raiders play this season that has any relevance at all. I can’t pass up the chance to talk about them a little bit, right?

Yes Denver won earlier. Yes they have the better quarterback, the better record, the better coach and overall the better team. Blah, blah, blah.

But what do the Raiders have? History, and maybe homefield advantage. The Raiders are 10-3 against the Broncos beginning in the 2018 season. This rivalry has been lopsided in favor of the Raiders for most of their history. Even when one team is significantly better than the other, it’s still a very close game. The Raiders have struggled on offense all season and Denver’s defense has been very good. That’s a bad matchup. The Raiders defense has underwhelmed, even though they have gotten some great individual performances. I think the secondary has been a bright spot on the defense, our pass rush – especially Crosby has been lacking, and the linebacker play has been atrocious most of the year.

Can Maxx Crosby live up to his words and turn things around over the final few games? I don’t know, but I doubt it. I might be one of the few who thought trading him for a stash of picks was a good idea. The offensive line looked better with the new offensive coaching team in place. I’d be happy with constant improvement there for the rest of the season. Quarterback play is inconsistent, but the lack of a running game is the real reason this team has regressed.

Against the Broncos, all of these problems will be magnified. The Raiders are playing for pride, the Broncos are playing for the playoffs. To stay in the top three in next year’s draft, the Raiders have one more win in them this season. And I don’t think this is the week they are going to use it. Denver is feeling it, and I think they are going to enjoy exorcising the demons around their Raiders curse. DEN 31 – LV 17

Well that’s it for Week 12. Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!