Week fifteen. The bye weeks are done. Fantasy playoffs are starting, and the real playoff push in the NFL season is beginning. We’ll start this week with the Chicago Bears who might be one of the biggest disappointments to many, but are finishing very much like I thought at the beginning of the season.

At the very beginning, I questioned the narrative that the Bears’ front office had put together a fantastic supporting cast for Caleb Williams. I pushed back on the thought of this being a playoff team. I pushed back on the thought that Caleb Williams was going to be a star/savior for the Bears in his first year.

Why?

One word: Leadership.

At the beginning of the season that was the biggest concern I had. Who were the players on this team that had a proven winning record? Who were going to be the guys in the locker room that stood up and said “this is how we have to play/practice/perform if we want to be a championship caliber team”? They brought in a lot of free agents, they spent a lot of money, but they didn’t grab players that could command the locker room. And look at the team now. They lost games they shouldn’t have, they lost games where it looked like they were unprepared or unmotivated. Some of that comes from coaching, but there has to be players in the locker room saying this isn’t acceptable.

Where are they?

Look at the Rams. They’ve been decimated by injuries. But they scratched and clawed their way to wins that saved their season. Now they are in the thick of the playoff race. You think that young defense didn’t get a pep talk from leaders like Stafford or Kupp? You think some of the young players didn’t get a speech from the locker room about what it takes to win? The Rams might have less talent overall than the Bears. But they have winning credentials in the locker room – and if the Bears want to change their fortunes, they are going to need more than just a new head coach. They need winners in the locker room.

Stories I’m Following

Bill Belichick coaching college?

Ok, I guess that’s a thing? I was getting ready to type out this article with the speculation that he might go to North Carolina, but then news broke that he actually is. So, let’s change this up a bit. Does it make sense? In a way, it does. When Brady left New England, it launched the debate of who was more responsible for the success of the Patriots. Brady won the argument by winning another Super Bowl without Belichick. But now, Belichick has a new way to cement his legacy in coaching. North Carolina has not been a power football school. Bill doesn’t have to win a national championship there. Just getting them to the playoff might be enough. Showing that he can win at multiple levels might be important to him. To be clear, I don’t think he has to prove anything to anyone. But if he needs this for himself, more power to him. I’m interested to see what happens.

But why go college instead of staying in the pros? For one, there might not have been a job waiting for him in the pros. Let’s look at how this year’s crop of new head coaches is doing.

There were five coaches getting their first head job this year:

MacDonald in Seattle
Callahan in Tennessee
Pierce in Las Vegas
Mayo in New England
Canales in Carolina

So these guys have a mixed bag of success. MacDonald is doing well up in Seattle with an 8 – 5 record. But this was a fairly good roster and a surprise job opening. The other four have not found much success in the wins and losses. All four have struggled with their quarterback situation all season and that has a lot to do with it. Pierce might be the only one of this group that has seen his team regress.

What about the three coaches that had previous head coaching experience?

Harbaugh in Los Angeles
Morris in Atlanta
Quinn in Washington

Quite a bit of difference in these teams from the first list. And let’s not act like these were better teams last year. Washington was horrible. Atlanta couldn’t move the ball. The Chargers were a dumpster fire. But these coaches understood how to change the culture and get things moving in the right direction quickly.

So why is there such a focus on getting the first time head coach every offseason? There’s something to be said for a steady hand at the wheel. Belichick might be aged, but there is value to having someone that knows how to win at this level running your team.

Let’s see what he brings to the college game now.

Tale of the Tape

Jonnu Smith has found a home in the Miami offense. With the limitations on Tua’s arm strength, he’s going to continue to be the top target on crucial plays.

AJ Brown has a legitimate complaint about the passing game. On the touchdown to Smith at the end of the first half, Brown was open on a much easier throw. Why did Hurts not throw it? There were multiple times throughout the game where Hurts didn’t pull the trigger when his receivers were open. I came away with the thought that he looked a lot like Justin Fields out there. More comfortable running the ball than throwing it. If Hurts is having a confidence issue, or if there is something else happening behind the scenes that could spell trouble for this team in the playoffs.

I continue to be impressed with the growth we’ve seen from Bryce Young since coming back into the starting lineup. If Legette makes that catch at the goal line, they win that game.

Did Derek Carr intentionally break his hand so he wouldn’t have to play anymore this season? It certainly looked like an unnecessary jump and hard landing.

Mike McCarthy should bench Micah Parsons for a week. I understand he was frustrated, but how he was acting on the sideline and then refusing to shake hands after the game is the epitome of bad sportsmanship. Send a message, what are they going to do, fire you?

Whatever monkeypaw, rabbits foot, talisman Andy Reid and Dan Campbell are using better hold out until the end of the season. Hate to waste that good luck in Week 14.

Power Rankings

Who is playing the best football right now? Last week rank in parenthesis ()

10. Tampa Bay (10)
    Sloppy game against the Raiders with a bunch of turnovers. Still, they managed to win the game easily. Good teams win even when they play a bad game.
11. Seattle (13)
    It’s time to take the Seahawks seriously. And I don’t mean “make the playoffs”, I mean “can win a playoff game” seriously.
12. Baltimore (8)
    The Ravens needed a week to reset. They still have eyes on the division crown and the schedule gives them a chance.
13. Green Bay (4)
    This is a good team. But their four losses are to Detroit, Minnesota and Philadelphia. Can this team do anything in the playoffs or are they still a year away?
14. Pittsburgh (7)
    The defense returned last week against Cleveland which was nice to see. Would still like the coaching staff to focus on more balance on offense – run the ball!
15. Kansas City (6)
    There are very few stats that directly relate to wins. Third down conversions and red zone efficiency are two of them. Guess what these Chiefs are great at?
16. Minnesota (5)
    Amazing to think a two loss team could be overlooked or under the radar. But here we are. The Vikings aren’t getting the respect they deserve – they could easily find themselves in the NFC Championship this year.
17. Buffalo (2)
    Buffalo on the road is still an issue. This week – on the road in Detroit. This is a tough stretch for Bills fans.
18. Philadelphia (3)
    AJ Brown has it right. Running the ball and playing good defense is enough to get into the playoffs. But if they can’t figure out the passing game, they will get bounced early.
19. Detroit (1)
    Juggernaut? Team of Destiny? Over hyped? Maybe it’s all three?

MVP Watch

Who are the players making the best case for the MVP award this year?

5. Joe Burrow – this Bengals team is one of the great mysteries of the NFL over the past 30 years. 5 wins? Unbelievable.
6. Lamar Jackson – it’s the stretch run. Winning the division might be enough to elevate him to yet another MVP
7. Jared Goff – calm, cool, confident. The leader of the offense and the model of efficiency on the year.
8. Saquon Barkley – if he got the goalline touches that went to Jalen Hurts there probably wouldn’t be much debate on the MVP for this year.
9. Josh Allen – six touchdowns, three passing, three rushing, in one game. A first. 1 of 1.

Weekly Predictions

Next week’s games, who’s going to win and why?

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco
The Rams are surging at the right time of the year. Stafford is playing well and as long as Puka and Kupp stay healthy, this offense is near unstoppable. The 49ers looked good last week, but it was against an uninspired Bears team. Injuries are tough, but they are even tougher on a short week. LAR 31 – SF 20

Kansas City at Cleveland
This is a more dangerous game than many people believe. Jameis Winston can come out and drop 300 yards and 3 touchdowns on anyone. And if he does this week, Kansas City loses. The Chiefs are finding crazier and crazier ways to win each week. I’m interested to see how they manage in Cleveland. KC 26 – CLE 22

Cincinnati at Tennessee
The Bengals playoff chances are slim, but not zero. Tennessee hasn’t looked as motivated in the past couple of weeks. The Titans offense is stuck, but playing the Bengals defense should help. Unfortunately, they have no answer for Burrow and Chase. CIN 30 – TEN 27

Washington at New Orleans
I don’t even know if New Orleans has enough healthy players to put out a complete offensive team. Washington is coming back from a bye week ready to prove doubters (like me) that they belong in the playoffs. WAS 24 – NO 10

Baltimore at New York Giants
This is unfair scheduling. The Giants have enough problems to deal with besides getting the Ravens after a bye. BAL 31 – NYG 13

Dallas at Carolina
This is a very interesting game. Is Micah Parsons fired up and going to put on a show this week? Or is he so frustrated that he’ll continue to be irrelevant through most of the game? Carolina has been playing well lately and against good competition. CAR 27 – DAL 20

New York Jets at Jacksonville
Life from the Jets offense! It only took fourteen weeks but they were able to look like a pro team in Miami last week. Can they keep it going in Jacksonville? The Jaguars are still playing hard every week, but they don’t have the players to pull this off. NYJ 25 – JAX 21

Miami at Houston
The biggest question Houston needs to answer coming out of the bye is whether or not they’ve figured out how to protect Stroud. If he continues to get pressure up the middle, the Houston offense is in trouble. Miami got a good come from behind win last week, but they are operating with no margin for error. Can they keep up the intensity for another week? HOU 27 – MIA 26

Buffalo at Detroit
Home or away, the biggest problem the Bills are facing is that the Lions do exactly what the Rams do on offense – only better. The Lions got a last minute win against Green Bay even with a beat up defense. Can they handle the Bills potent offense? If we are lucky, this is a preview of a fantastic Super Bowl in a couple of months. DET 34 – BUF 31

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Carolina was able to run the ball right at Philadelphia and gash them for consistent gains. That used to be the strength of the Pittsburgh offense, but lately they have fallen in love with the passing game. The Eagles defense has been spectacular against the pass lately. Can the Steelers get back to their identity? Not this week, but maybe a loss will wake them up. PHI 26 – PIT 23

New England at Arizona
How will Arizona recover from the loss to Seattle and likely being eliminated from the playoffs? Will New England come out of the bye week trying to win or trying to improve their draft position? ARI 20 – NE 17

Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Chargers
Two teams that need a win. The Buccaneers need to stay a full game ahead of Atlanta in order to win the division. The Chargers need to beat a team with a winning record. Baker should be able to use his legs to neutralize the Chargers’ pass rush and make just enough plays to get a win in what should be a highly entertaining game. TB 30 – LAC 27

Green Bay at Seattle
I am linking Seattle’s turnaround this season to the overhaul of their linebacker group at the trade deadline. Since then, the defense has been great. Green Bay feels like the kid brother of the NFC North. They can beat up everyone else, but keep getting pushed down by their big brothers. I know I keep getting burned picking against Seattle, but Green Bay is just playing at a higher level against better teams. GB 34 – SEA 30

Chicago at Minnesota
I think Chicago players are already making offseason plans and clearing out their lockers. That was a horrible showing in San Francisco last week. This is a division game, so there should be extra motivation, but I think that will all come from the Vikings. By the time this game starts, Minnesota could be playing for a share of the division lead. MIN 36 – CHI 20

Atlanta at Las Vegas
Lost in all of the talk about how Kirk Cousins is the fact that the Atlanta defense has been playing much better lately. They are finally getting pressure on the quarterback, which is bad news for the Raiders. This could be the game that launches the career of Penix though. With a Raiders offense that doesn’t scare anybody, could Raheem Morris decide to bench Cousins at halftime if he’s struggling? ATL 23 – LV 13

Game of the week:

Indianapolis at Denver
Both teams have been playing well recently and are coming off a bye. I don’t have any extra insight into this game, but I wanted to make it my game of the week because the winner is likely going to be the seven seed in the AFC.

These teams are constructed very similarly. Young quarterback, decent weapons on the offense, young defense still learning, good offensive coaching staffs. But I think Denver holds an edge across the board. I like Nix better than Richardson. Sean Payton is more experienced than Shane Steichen. Plus, they are playing in Denver, and that home field advantage means something. DEN 24 – IND 20

Well that’s it for Week 15. Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!