Finally, the election is over and we can get back to arguing about the things that are really important – like who is going to make the playoffs this year!

Last week I talked about whether or not the AFC or NFC is the better/more competitive conference. The NFC really has a big middle section of teams. Of the nine teams with only two wins on the season, only three are from the NFC. Two divisions have all teams with a minimum of four wins. What does it all mean? Well for one thing it means that last playoff spot is likely going to come down to a long string of tie breakers.

It also shows that the NFC is starting to see results from owners who have invested in coaching. You have to get a lot right in the offseason to get wins. But it starts with getting the coaching staff right. If you look at the best teams in the NFC right now, you’ll see a theme – and it’s a collection of young head coaches, or great young coordinators. Setting the tone, building chemistry and creating an identity for your team – once you get this right, building the talent that matches becomes easier. You get the quarterback that fits, the veterans that match, the rookies that can be developed. And then the wins come. It’s not a quick fix, building teams. It takes time and the right people. I think we are on the verge of seeing NFC teams dominate the Super Bowl for the next five to ten years.

Playoff Picture

Ok, what did I think in the preseason? I had San Francisco, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Atlanta as the division winners. I picked the Los Angeles Rams, Dallas, and Green Bay as wild cards.

Well, right now, Arizona, Detroit, Washington, and Atlanta are the division leaders with Minnesota, Philadelphia and Green Bay as the wild cards.

So there’s still a good amount of the same teams that I picked. San Francisco is worrying. They’ve been struggling with injuries all season. Detroit certainly looks Super Bowl bound right now. Atlanta is the best of the South and Philadelphia is positioned well to win the East. Other than Dallas, I still feel good about my wild card picks. I think we all know Dallas is done for the season.

Sitting here at week ten, I’d definitely make some changes to my picks. Atlanta seems to have figured things out lately and should win the NFC South easily. I think the Philly/Washington battle is going to come down to the wire. Winner gets the division and loser is a wild card team. The NFC North is going to keep knocking each other around, but the Lions should take the division and Green Bay and Minnesota will be wild card teams. The NFC West is interesting. Arizona is already 2-0 in the division and finish the season with games against the Rams and 49ers. Could those games decide the division title? None of the four teams have been all that impressive so far. Arizona has the easiest remaining schedule followed by the Rams then the 49ers. I think the Rams manage to pull it off. But it’s going to be close.

So my updated playoff picture looks like this:

• Detroit (1 Seed)
• Philadelphia (2 Seed)
• Atlanta (3 Seed)
• LA Rams (4 Seed)
• Green Bay (5 Seed)
• Washington (6 Seed)
• Minnesota (7 Seed)

The 49ers could easily prove me wrong after their bye week. They haven’t looked like the 49ers of old, but that could change if McCaffery is back. Arizona could find a way to win the division. Tampa Bay could sneak in. Chicago is probably a year (and a new coach) away from getting there. But this feels right, at least for today. Give it a week and I’m sure the whole thing will need to be reworked!

Biggest Surprise
How quickly Dan Quinn was able to turn around the Washington Commanders. Quinn has always been a good coach, but he washed out pretty quickly in Atlanta after Kyle Shannahan left. With all the turnover in that franchise, I thought it would take a while for them to build a culture and be relevant. The Commanders front office did the right thing getting Quinn in there and providing an experienced hand at the start. Congrats to them!

Biggest Disappointment
I think the dysfunction in Dallas has been my biggest disappointment. Going in to the season, I could see this wasn’t as talented a team as last year’s. But the fighting through the media between Jerry Jones and Mike McCarthy has been ridiculous. Jerry Jones even threatened to fire his radio hosts for asking tough questions. Former players are speaking out about how things work behind closed doors in Dallas. It’s not a great look and I think Jones is going to learn that free agents aren’t as keen to go to Dallas anymore.

Best Overachiever
This was hard to narrow down, but I’m picking Saquon Barkley. People can’t believe the Giants let him go, especially to a division rival. But let’s take a step back and look at this realistically. Barkley has been injury prone. He wasn’t finishing seasons while with the Giants. He wasn’t overly productive when he was healthy. In fact, he’s already matched his numbers from last year – in six fewer games!

Worst Underachiever
This is always a hard one to do because you are picking on a guy that’s having a rough season or not living up to expectations. It’s like kicking someone when they are already down. I could have picked Dak or Daniel Jones of course. They are used to it. San Francisco as a team would qualify, sure. Christian McCaffery might be a good choice, but since he hasn’t even played it’s hard to knock him down too much. There is a 49er that has earned this title though – Brandon Aiyuk.

After an offseason of drama, holdouts and trade requests, he finally signed a deal just before the season began. He struggled to get in game shape and barely had any production at all before his season ending knee injury. He got paid, but what did the team get – 3 catches and 50 yards per game? Not exactly living up to the contract.

Division Grades

NFC East – The Giants are playing about how I expected. Dallas feels like a dumpster fire just waiting to be lit up. The salvation for this division is Philadelphia and Washington. Washington is the fun loving young ones at the party who are just happy to be winning again. Philadelphia is the moody teen who is tired of the world’s expectations. Either way they are both making the playoffs and helping the division earn a respectable grade. Grade B

NFC North – Is the class of the NFL? Have they been able to take that title from the AFC North? I think so. Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay have solid quarterback play, great running games, and can play good defense. They are going to beat each other up in the second half of the season but that’s ok. Chicago started out doing well, but internal issues are threatening to derail a promising season. Grade A-

NFC South – Yikes. Atlanta is playing the best football right now in the division. Tampa Bay was at the top but injuries have dropped them. The problem is, neither of these teams are playing up to their potential. They might be the best of the division, but they aren’t their best selves yet. Carolina is still suffering under the mistakes of past regimes and New Orleans just fired their coach. It’s not good in the South! Grade D

NFC West – All four teams are right at .500 for the season. The 49ers and Rams have been decimated by injuries. The Seahawks and Cardinals have been inconsistent. Is there a good team here? I don’t know. Is there a bad team here? Again, I don’t know. Grade C-

Power Rankings

Who is playing the best football right now? Last Week’s rank in parenthesis ()

10. Houston (4)
    A bit of a fall this week for the Texans. When healthy, this is a team that can play with anyone in the league. But right now, they just aren’t. I trust the coaching staff to find ways to overcome their pass blocking issues.
11. Green Bay (5)
    What’s getting lost in all of the Jordan Love criticism is that his receivers aren’t playing well either. Besides the dropped balls, Watson seems to be giving up on routes or running the wrong ones. The bye week came at just the right time. Love can rest his injuries and the offense can reset for the playoff push.
12. Minnesota (10)
    Making adjustments at halftime and coming from behind to win was a great sight to see for this Vikings team. TJ Hockenson is going to be eased back in, but that’s a great weapon over the middle to help Darnold out.
13. Washington (6)
    Win and drop in the rankings? Well, unfortunately, they haven’t looked as good without Brian Robinson Jr in the lineup. Mediocre showings against Chicago and the Giants don’t inspire confidence right now. A win against Pittsburgh could put all those doubts aside.
14. Pittsburgh (7)
    A couple of moves at the trade deadline didn’t net a big star, but certainly added depth. The top of the AFC is starting to look crowded, can Pittsburgh get a win in Washington before a brutal slate of division games?
15. Philadelphia (9)
    It looks like Kellen Moore is starting to get a good feel for how to call plays for this offense. The offense has the talent to be great, and the defense continues to improve. How weird is it to think this game against Dallas isn’t for the division lead? That comes later, against the upstarts from D.C.
16. Buffalo (3)
    Clutch win in a game where they were physically pushed around. The passing game looked good on Sunday even without Cooper in the lineup. They continue to be extremely balanced on offense with Cook taking pressure off Allen. The Bills have the easiest road to the playoffs, hopefully they don’t get complacent.
17. Baltimore (8)
    Defense remains the biggest question mark on the team. Bringing in Tre’Davious White should help the secondary, if, and that’s a big if, he can stay on the field.
18. Kansas City (2)
    They are due for a loss. Just don’t let it be to the Broncos or Chargers. That would be embarrassing.
19. Detroit (1)
    It is rare for a dome team to be built to win in bad weather. The league has been put on notice – this Lions team is on a mission.

MVP Watch

Who are the players making the best case for the MVP award this year?

5. Saquon Barkley – the reverse leap over a defender will be one of the highlights that is played forever when recapping his career.
6. TJ Watt – even on his week off he outperformed half the defensive linemen in the NFL
7. Josh Allen – clutch wins, red zone efficiency, dual threat. Sounds MVPish to me
8. Jared Goff – saw some ridiculous stat about him having more touchdown passes than incompletions over the last so many games. Couldn’t be true could it?
9. Lamar Jackson – Right now this team needs him to be an MVP. If they are going to compete for a Super Bowl, he will need the entire team to play better.

Weekly Predictions

Next week’s games, who’s going to win and why?

Cincinnati at Baltimore
The Bengals are going to make me sweat out my playoff prediction for them. Getting Herbert at the deadline should help give them more production from the run game. But it’s the Ravens pass defense that is most vulnerable. If Tee Higgins was playing, I’d seriously consider Cincinnati. BAL 24 – CIN 17

New York Giants at Carolina (Germany)
At this stage, Carolina is ready to start evaluating what talent they have on the team and what they need to do in the offseason. I don’t think they are going to put much effort into winning games, so long as they don’t have the worst record in the NFL for a third consecutive game. The Giants have a quarterback and a coach that are playing for their jobs. NYG 22 – CAR 19

New England at Chicago
I don’t like the body language of the Chicago players. DJ Moore walking off the field in the middle of a play? Yikes. The question came up if Eberflus has lost the locker room. We’ll know after this week. New England is all effort all the time. If Chicago isn’t ready to play this game they could lose it. CHI 16 – NE 13

Buffalo at Indianapolis
Does Buffalo have a problem stopping the run? If so, this could be a very interesting game. The Colts are a much better team playing at home and the Bills have struggled on the road. But the Colts are having quarterback issues and it’s hard to win games if you can’t get that position right. BUF 23 – IND 17

Denver at Kansas City
It’s a short week after a grueling overtime win. It’s a division game. Rivalry week. It’s a trap game just waiting for an upset. Right? Nope, not this week. Denver collected a few nice wins, but they have not played well against the top teams. If this game was in Denver, maybe, but the Kansas City homefield advantage is too much – even if Mahomes is playing hurt. KC 29 – DEN 16

Atlanta at New Orleans
Do the Saints get the “we just fired our coach” bump? No, I don’t think so. Their biggest issue wasn’t coaching but injuries and team chemistry. For all his faults, Dennis Allen was probably the last thing keeping this from becoming total chaos. On the other hand, Atlanta is the model of consistency this year. They just keep chugging along and should get out of New Orleans with a win. ATL 31 – NO 16

San Francisco at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay left everything on the field Monday night. Baker Mayfield has played great since losing his top two receivers. The offense is down, but they are still able to move the ball and score points. I just wonder if they can emotionally get back up for this game against San Francisco? The 49ers are coming off a bye and getting healthier. It’s going to be a tough match, but I don’t think the Buccaneers can pull it off. SF 23 – TB 20

Minnesota at Jacksonville
It’s not about talent or effort anymore with Jacksonville – it’s confidence. Does this team really believe they can win these games? And that’s the unfortunate consequence of having a legacy of losing. Minnesota is starting to look like the 5-0 team that started the season and not the 0-2 rough patch they had. MIN 27 – JAX 20

Tennessee at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are on a bit of a run here. Herbert is playing very well and his receivers are finally making plays. Offensively, they’ll probably find it difficult to run against Tennessee but if Herbert can continue to make plays with his arm they should be able to pull this one out. LAC 24 – TEN 20

Philadelphia at Dallas
I really hate mismatches like this. Every single metric says the Eagles should win in a blowout. But this is a divisional game on the road. The Cowboys are backed into a corner, and they could either fall apart or come out fighting. Just kidding, the Eagles are going to destroy the Cowboys this week. PHI 38 – DAL 17

New York Jets at Arizona
Did the Jets offense finally figure it all out? Did their defense finally remember they are a top ten unit? Is this the beginning of a run to the playoffs? It’s all certainly possible, but we’ve seen the Jets play decent games and then follow it up with stinkers. Arizona has played well most of the season. They’ve been under the radar good, and I think they have a great chance to win in the desert. ARI 26 – NYJ 17

Detroit at Houston
This is not the get right game Houston needed right now. They might get Nico Collins back for this game which would be a boost. But right now they are dealing with more issues than just their wide receiver room. DET 31 – HOU 27

Miami at Los Angeles Rams
The Dolphins have continued to focus on the run game even after Tua’s return. Maybe it’s to protect Tua, or maybe their is a real concern about Tua’s ability to throw the ball down the field. But until this offense can consistently get the ball to Waddle and Hill downfield it’s going to be difficult to win consistently. The Rams are playing at a high level right now and are getting explosive plays from their passing game. LAR 31 – MIA 23

Game of the week:

Pittsburgh at Washington
Washington has struggled the past two weeks against the Bears and Giants. The question I have is whether it’s because they’ve been missing Brian Robinson Jr. or have defenses started to catch up to Kingsbury’s offense? Defensively, Washington is playing well, and adding Marshon Lattimore is a great depth piece.

Pittsburgh added a couple of nice depth pieces at the trade deadline too. Their running back room is getting healthy, so it will be interesting to see if they continue to rely on the passing game and Russell Wilson. What has been overlooked though, is how well the Steelers’ Special Teams units have been. Could be a deciding factor in this game.

The matchup I’m really excited to watch though is TJ Watt vs Jayden Daniels. Can Daniels outrun Watt? Can he escape the pressure and get the ball downfield? Can Watt force turnovers? This game has the potential to bring a playoff intensity to it and I’ll be watching to see if Jayden Daniels is ready for that level of play. PIT 27 – WAS 24

So that takes care of our midseason grades. Hopefully we still have just as many exciting moments coming up! Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!