Week eleven is here and that means the weather is starting to get colder, the playoff picture is starting to come into focus and certain teams are having to decide whether or not they are ready to start tanking.

I think one of the interesting things I see about tanking season is the correlation with coaching confidence. Players don’t want to tank. Losing and not getting their stats can affect their contract bonuses, or even their next contract when they finally reach free agency. But coaches and front offices are looking at roster building, and it’s always better to be in a position to get the best players available after the season – in other words tanking. And coaches who know they are going to be back next season have no problem with the tank. They’ll play rookies, bench starters, put players on IR that might not need it. But coaches that are unsure of their status for the following year aren’t so keen on the tank. So keep an eye on these 2 and 3 win teams. If you see them continuing to fight for wins, maybe that’s a sign that the coach feels like he could be getting fired at the end of the season.

I’m very interested in the NFC West standings. Arizona has the inside track for the title, but San Francisco might be the better team. The Rams aren’t technically out of it, but they have a deep hole to climb out of. The AFC wildcard looks like its going to be split in someway between the AFC West and AFC North teams. Which division is going to get three teams in the playoffs? My bet right now is the AFC North.

Cold weather games means the return of two forgotten positions – running back and linebacker. We’re going to see teams leaning more heavily on the run game as the weather gets worse. When the offense can throw the ball all over the field, the linebackers are almost irrelevant. They can’t keep up with the receivers in crossing routes, and aren’t very impactful in zone coverages. But now that offenses are more conservative, the best defenses are the teams that can get big games from their linebackers.

When the air is crisp and you can see your breath outside, when the leaves have fallen and there’s frost on the grass – that’s when you know football season is at it’s best!

Stories I’m Following

After spending the last couple of weeks handing out midseason grades for each team, I thought I’d take a couple of lines here to grade out the rookie quarterbacks for their performances so far.

Caleb Williams
He has shown that he has the arm talent to be very good in the NFL. There was a couple game stretch where it looked like he was getting things figured out and started throwing in rhythm. But since then, things have gone downhill. Coaching has played some part in that, but there are some lingering issues that scouts warned about from his college days. He holds the ball too long trying to make the big play. He is passing up short easy completions waiting for something to happen deep. When he feels pressure, his eyes drop to the pass rush rather than continuing to look downfield for an open receiver. It’s part of why he’s taking so many sacks. The mistakes are correctable, but he’s losing confidence (and the locker room) quickly. Grade C-

Jayden Daniels
Having Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator has helped him rack up amazing stats in his rookie season. Early on, he was given a simplified offense, one read and run, that helped him get comfortable on the field. Lately, he has been playing more from the pocket and going through a progression of reads. His stats aren’t as stellar in these games, but his development as a quarterback is going up. Kingsbury’s system is quarterback friendly, but it hasn’t proven itself over the long term as a pro style offense. In Arizona, he only managed one really good season with Kyler Murray, and already it feels like defenses are catching up to what Washington is doing. Those aren’t knocks on Jayden, but he is going to need to continue developing as a passer if he wants to become a true franchise quarterback. Grade A-

Drake Maye
The Patriots wanted to sit Maye for the season and let him learn behind Jacoby Brissett. But they didn’t expect Brissett to struggle so much this year. In the games that Maye has played he’s shown himself to be possibly the best offensive player that the Patriots have. He has very good accuracy and no fear throwing the ball into tight windows. He has also shown athleticism outside the pocket. That said, he is turning the ball over, and the wins haven’t been there, but the expectations were low for the Patriots this year. Grade B

Penix/McCarthy
Incomplete. They looked good in preseason, but until we get some regular season starts, they remain with an Incomplete grade.

Bo Nix
At the beginning of the season, Nix struggled. He was running the very complex, pro style offense that Sean Payton ran for years in New Orleans with Drew Brees. You could see it on film, Payton was forcing Nix to make his reads, go through his progressions, and throw the ball. He made mistakes, but he learned from them. Now he looks like a quarterback who has been in this system for years. It’s remarkable how well he’s developed so soon in his career. He has a strong arm, good accuracy, and has started to show some running ability as well. Nix already looks like the face of the franchise and it shows how having a strong offensive head coach can make a difference in developing a young quarterback. Grade A

Spencer Rattler
Oh yeah, how many forgot that Rattler was another rookie quarterback who has played this year? He showed that he still needs time to develop. His ceiling might be a career backup, but that’s not a bad thing considering where he was drafted. Grade C

Week in Review

• What happened last week? Who were the big winners? The sorriest losers? Who surprised? Who showed us exactly who they are?
• Houston needs to save those red jerseys. They were hard to miss, right Jared Goff?
• Nick Bosa might need some gym therapy after Baker Mayfield put the stiff arm to him on fourth down
• New Orleans receivers know they are safe as long as they run deep out routes, they need to upgrade their medical plan if Carr is throwing them over the middle
• The Giants are a great team to get your mojo back right Bryce Young?
• Why do I get the feeling Caleb Williams is going to be career death for offensive coordinators?
• Going for two was the right call Cincinnati, unlike the play you chose
• Maybe spend an extra hour or two in practice on tackling drills Baltimore
• Better to be lucky than good, but can Kansas City just stick to being one or the other?
• Maybe Aaron Rodgers should take notes from Russell Wilson – at least he can get the deep ball to Mike Williams
• Jerry Jones should be thankful that the big story is a 15 year old architectural flaw in his building rather than the lack of depth he created on his team as the de facto general manager #hangcurtains

Power Rankings

Who is playing the best football right now? Last week rank in parenthesis ()

10. Arizona (12)
    Connor leads a powerful running game. They have a great young receiver in rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. A stud tight end in McBride. An offensive line that is very good at pushing people around. A defense that hasn’t allowed a touchdown in their last two games. And Kyler. That’s a lot of the ingredients for a playoff team. The only thing they are lacking is consistency, but I feel like that’s coming.
11. Green Bay (9)
    Hopefully the bye week gave this team time to recover and refresh. Love needs to up his game if this team is going to stay relevant in the playoffs.
12. Minnesota (8)
    Jacksonville played tough, but this team is too talented to escape with such a close victory. Darnold has been locked in to Jefferson for the first half of the season. If he can reset and send some targets to Hockenson who is finally back from injury, this offense will be potent again.
13. Washington (7)
    I’m a little worried for this Washington team. They have far exceeded expectations, but it’s starting to become obvious that they aren’t ready to face the top teams yet. If this losing streak breaks their confidence, the playoffs might not be guaranteed.
14. Pittsburgh (6)
    As I feared, this offense is starting to become Russell Wilson focused. It works as long as he keeps his completion percentage up and gets the ball out of his hands quickly. If he starts scrambling around and focusing on the big play, then this offense is going to be Seattle 2.0.
15. Philadelphia (5)
    Steady improvement each week. I get that fans are skeptical, but this is a mentally tougher team than last year. A win on Thursday and they are in control of the division.
16. Baltimore (3)
    The Ravens still have two games against the Steelers this season. Can the rivalry finally remind them how to play defense?
17. Kansas City (2)
    Rumors are that Pacheco is going to be back in the lineup sooner rather than later. Good news for the Chiefs, bad news for the AFC.
18. Buffalo (4)
    What separates Buffalo from Kansas City and Baltimore is the complementary football they play. Good not great offense, good not great defense, good not great special teams. But that gives them many ways to win a game.
19. Detroit (1)
    This is what great teams do, win games when they aren’t playing their best.

MVP Watch

Who are the players making the best case for the MVP award this year?

5. TJ Watt – not much on the box score, but his presence was still felt on the field.
6. Baker Mayfield – the wins haven’t been there, but the team has been competitive and that’s due to his play.
7. Saquon Barkley – the Eagles look to be headed to the NFC Championship game and might be the only team in the NFC that can challenge the Lions. Saquon is the engine of this offense
8. Josh Allen – if he beats Kansas City this week, I’ll put him number one next week.
9. Lamar Jackson – Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns and didn’t turn the ball over, and the Ravens still won. Lamar is on another level.

Weekly Predictions

Next week’s games, who’s going to win and why?

Washington at Philadelphia
The Eagles are just a little bit better across the board personnel wise. Daniels has been a dynamic player for the Commanders and given the team a boost, but the last couple of games he’s struggled without a dominant run game to lean on. If Jalen Hurts can reestablish his connection with AJ Brown this game could turn into a blowout late. PHI 31 – WAS 24

Green Bay at Chicago
Chicago is struggling on offense and their defense has been bad against the run. Not the best time to face Green Bay after a bye. I expect Josh Jacobs is going to have a big game. GB 27 – CHI 14

Jacksonville at Detroit
The Jaguars have been playing much better football the past three or four weeks, but they still aren’t winning games. This isn’t the week to expect that trend to end. The Lions are coming off a huge comeback victory, and that was the wakeup call they needed to prevent this becoming a trap game. DET 31 – JAX 16

Minnesota at Tennessee
The Vikings offense has become too dependent on Justin Jefferson lately. Spreading the football around can help Darnold get out of his current turnover funk, and help get the offense back into the end zone. The Titans defense has been very good this season, but an upset just isn’t in the cards this week. MIN 23 – TEN 17

Las Vegas at Miami
What kind of team are we going to see from Las Vegas out of the bye? Are they still trying to prove something or are they ready to tank for a quarterback in the upcoming draft? Either way, they don’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Miami this week. MIA 26 – LV 16

Los Angeles Rams at New England
The Rams are coming off a bad Monday night loss, but this is a must win for them. A loss here and they won’t be able to keep up with the rest of the NFC contenders. New England is trying to develop players and build a culture, not necessarily win games. LAR 27 – NE 13

Cleveland at New Orleans
To tank or not to tank – that is the question. But in this game there are two head coaches that are likely fighting for a job next year. Neither team is playing well, so I’m going to pick the rested team. CLE 17 – NO 16

Indianapolis at New York Jets
The Colts have decided to go back to Anthony Richardson for the rest of the season. That’s probably the right decision for his development and the future of the franchise. But its not going to help them win games the rest of this season. In a game full of bad choices, I’ll take the home team. NYJ 22 – IND 19

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
This will be the 36th meeting between coaches Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh. There are no secrets between these two teams. One of the true great rivalries in football. TJ Watt will have to be dominant in this game if they hope to slow down Lamar Jackson at all. The Baltimore defense has struggled all season, but I think this game is going to motivate them to play a tick better. BAL 30 – PIT 29

Seattle at San Francisco
It probably wasn’t a good idea to expect a new coaching staff to be successful running it back with last year’s team. The locker room turmoil is spilling out into the public space and that’s not a good look for a Seattle team trying to forge a new identity. In San Francisco, there’s a lot of optimism now that McCaffery is back. This might be the game that helps them fix their red zone problems. SF 32 – SEA 17

Kansas City at Buffalo
If not now, when? Kansas City has a unique ability to play just well enough to win no matter the opponent. But lately they’ve been cutting it close and the timing feels right for a couple of losses to build up. Buffalo is dealing with some injuries on offense, but Josh Allen is playing at a high level and should be able to make one more play than Mahomes. BUF 34 – KC 27

Cincinnati at Los Angeles Chargers
This will be a battle of contrasting styles – the Chargers with their ground and pound game and the Bengals with their high flying aerial assault. The winner of this game will be the team that can enforce their will on the other. In a shootout, Cincinnati will win. If the Chargers can grind them down with a ball control attack, they should be able to pull it out. CIN 34 – LAC 22

Houston at Dallas
The Texans have had a couple of bad games in a row. Their offensive line has been exposed in pass protection, and Stroud has been struggling to get the ball downfield. The return of Nico Collins should help. Dallas is going to have to rely on their defense and a conservative offense to try and squeeze out close victories the rest of the way. This feels like a get back game for the Texans. HOU 27 – DAL 16

Game of the week:

Atlanta at Denver
I’ve said many times before in this column that the Game of the Week doesn’t always represent the best game, or the game with the two best teams. It is the game that has the best storylines to me. And that certainly applies this week. This game should be getting more coverage, and I’m going to break it down.

Denver is playing above expectations this year. Bo Nix is developing quickly into a franchise quarterback, and the defense is showing improvement. Notably, this offense needs a few more playmakers, but overall this is a team on the rise. Right now, there are four teams competing for the three wild card spots – the Chargers, the Steelers/Ravens, the Bengals and the Broncos. The Broncos are currently in the final playoff spot, but Cincinnati is lurking.

Sean Payton has this team ready to play every week, and they almost beat Kansas City last week. How they respond to that loss will be telling. They put so much in to that game, do they have anything left for the visiting Falcons? A win and they can hold off Cincinnati another week – maybe even start a stretch that clinches a playoff berth. A loss, and this team might be emotionally drained, ready to look forward to next season.

Atlanta’s loss to New Orleans last week was bad for their playoff chances. A win would have given them a three game lead over Tampa Bay, with the tiebreaker in hand, practically locking up the division. Instead, they only have a two game lead, and their schedule is much tougher than Tampa’s. Atlanta still has the Broncos, Chargers, Vikings, and Commanders to play this season. The only team left on Tampa’s schedule with a winning record is the Chargers. If Tampa goes 6-1 over their final games (easily possible), that is going to put a lot of pressure on Atlanta. They will likely need to win two of these games against playoff caliber teams to ensure they hold on to the division.

Traveling to Denver is rough for every team. A loss this week could put a lot of stress on this Atlanta team that hasn’t been able to really put together a winning streak all season. The defense is solid but unremarkable. They don’t get much pressure on the quarterback and struggle to create turnovers. The offense can fall in love with throwing the ball on every down and forget they have a dynamic backfield with Robinson and Allgeier.

This is a weird game of AFC vs NFC where both teams need the win for their playoff positioning. I think the difference in the game is going to be the team that is able to get pressure on the quarterback and establish a strong running game. I give Denver the edge in defense but Atlanta’s running game has the talent to take over late in the game. ATL 24 – DEN 22

Thanks for staying with us through Week 11. Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!