Well Thanksgiving is upon us and we have a plethora of football to watch this week. For this Holiday week, I’m changing things up just a bit. Instead of three columns (Hits and Misses, Tale of the Tape, and Gridiron Preview) I’m just going to do a brief recap here on the Preview. Next week things will be back to normal.

But don’t worry, there’s plenty of football goodness in this column to get you through the week!

Hits and Misses

Well we got back on the winning side of the ledger last week with a 9 – 4 record. On a week that had several high profile upsets, I can feel pretty good about that mark.

I think the biggest hit from last week was the return of Tampa Bay and the play of Baker Mayfield. The high level of play from their offense and the relative ease of their schedule makes them my favorite pick for a team that can be a playoff crasher.

The biggest miss though might be Arizona as the best team in the NFC West. They still might win the division, but the loss against Seattle really made that difficult. We’ll talk more about the NFC West later in the column. But the problem I have with Arizona is that they let the Seahawks dominate the line of scrimmage. It bottled up their running game and put the offense in the hands of Kyler Murray. Unfortunately he couldn’t deliver, and that might provide a blue print for the remaining teams on their schedule.

Tale of the Tape

By this time of the year we know what we are getting from each team. I’m not going to do the normal game by game breakdown this week. Instead I’m going to grab four teams that lost last week and shouldn’t have.

PIT @ CLE
Weather was certainly a factor in this game. Coaching might have been, too. Mike Tomlin’s record on Thursday night games is horrible. And there’s enough evidence that it’s not just an anomaly. His teams just are not prepared to play on short weeks. But this was a game they needed. There should have been more urgency from the whole team. The schedule is not easy down the stretch and if they think they can just coast to the finish line, they are sorely mistaken.

Pittsburgh Fatal Flaw: They have the talent to win any game. But do they have the mental discipline to play at a high level in every game? The knock on Tomlin has been his lack of playoff success. Can they win the “must-win” games? The rest of the schedule is Philadelphia, Kansas City and AFC North division games. Can they survive a gauntlet of six must win games?

DAL @ WAS
The Commanders looked like a lock for a playoff spot and maybe even a division title four weeks ago. Now they are in danger of falling all the way out of the playoff race. What’s changed? Well the offense hasn’t been as potent for one. Brian Robinson Jr has been in and out of the lineup due to injuries, and when he’s been in he hasn’t been as effective. The Commanders also haven’t been able to find a consistent number two threat at receiver to compliment McLaurin.

Washington Fatal Flaw: If you look at their schedule, Arizona is the only team they have beaten with a winning record. This team has built their high powered offensive reputation beating up on bad teams. Against quality opponents they look very average. Teams have caught up to Kingsbury’s offense, and Jayden Daniels is not getting the open looks he’s used to seeing. Until they are able to find new wrinkles in the offense, this team will continue to struggle against better defenses.

Tennessee at Houston
This was a very weird game. There were moments where it felt like Houston was playing well on both sides of the ball, but then a big play would happen and the Titans were right back in it. I’m not sure this team is playing with confidence right now. There is a lot of youth on this team, and maybe they are lacking the veteran presence that’s needed in the locker room to get out of this funk they are in. Stroud is regressing, he’s looking more like a rookie quarterback this year than he did last year. The defense was getting immense pressure on the quarterback and forced turnovers. Yet somehow also let them connect on long plays for touchdowns.

Houston Fatal Flaw: The interior of the offensive line is going to be this team’s undoing. They simply cannot pass block up the middle. Stroud is consistently getting pressure from the front of the pocket and has no where to step into his throws. As a result his footwork is out of synch and his throwing fundamentals are fraying. If you want to know why his stats are down this year, that’s why.

Arizona at Seattle
On a drizzly day in Seattle, Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense simply didn’t show up. The Seahawks did a great job bottling up the Arizona run game and forced Kyler to beat them from the pocket. If not for a great performance from their defense, the Cardinals would have been blown out in this game. There aren’t a lot of stars on this defense, but as a unit they are playing some of the best football in the league.

Arizona Fatal Flaw: Kyler Murray. He’s also their biggest asset which makes this so difficult for the team going forward. If the running game is going, Kyler can make a few throws downfield and the offense rolls on. But if the game falls on his shoulders, more often than not he folds. We get so wrapped up in his athleticism it’s hard to pay attention to the fact that he is very inconsistent. He needs to be better at putting pressure on the opposing defense with his legs, tire out the pass rushers, and make plays in the fourth quarter.

Division Races

Let’s take a look at where we are as the season heads into the final stretch before the playoffs.

AFC East
Buffalo has this almost completely wrapped up. They have the tie breaker in place for the number one seed if they can win out and the Chiefs stumble.

Miami is still being considered as a possible playoff team. We’ll get a better picture on Thursday night. Can they win a cold weather game in Green Bay? Can they win cold weather games in Cleveland and New York down the stretch? This team is going to have to win out to make it, and I just don’t think history is on their side.

AFC South
Houston looked like they were going to run away with this division. They are still in good shape, they have the tiebreaker edge on Indianapolis. But they have a much tougher schedule down the stretch and problems on the offensive line and at quarterback.

Indianapolis has come back from the dead. They have a very favorable schedule where a 5-0 finish is very possible. A win at Denver on December 15th could get them in the playoffs as a wild card. Winning out could deliver them the division.

AFC North
Pittsburgh is still in the division lead, but I don’t think that’s going to hold. Their schedule is brutal. Russell Wilson is starting to take over on offense and change their identity. The Steelers are not built to be a pass first offense. As good of a story as this has been this year, they still feel like a wild card team that loses in the first round.

Baltimore has dug themselves a hole with a couple of bad losses this year. But if their defense continues to show improvement, they have a great chance to catch Pittsburgh in the standings and even win the division.

Cincinnati is on life support. A loss Sunday ends any hope of the playoffs.

AFC West
Kansas City looks like they will take the division again. But for the first time in years they are going to hear the footsteps from Denver and Los Angeles right behind them.

Los Angeles is absolutely overachieving this year. They have a low margin of error when they are playing competitive teams. Dropped passes, a turnover, and the game starts to get away from them. If they can stay on schedule, run the ball, get a few big plays in the passing game, they can keep winning. A wild card spot is waiting at the end of this season for the Chargers.

Denver has been a great story and they have an absolute star in the making in Bo Nix. But it feels like this ride is about to come to a stop. Their final four games are all teams competing for a playoff spot. I mean their seven wins are the Jets, the NFC South, and the Raiders (twice). It’s going to take at least ten wins to get in the playoffs so if they can get wins against Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati then there’s still a chance.

NFC East
This is now Philly’s division. They have an MVP candidate in Barkley, an offense that is clicking and a defense that has become very good. The Eagles aren’t just making the playoffs, they are challenging the Lions for a Super Bowl spot.

Washington is fading fast. Their final games are manageable, but right now they aren’t playing good football. The defense is struggling up the middle and the offense is dealing with injuries to their running backs. More concerning is the falloff in quality from Jayden Daniels. He is struggling to find open receivers and is looking to make the big play rather than taking what the defense is giving him.

NFC South
I’m very interested to see how Atlanta does coming out of their bye week. Kirk Cousins hasn’t been the answer for them at quarterback this year. He has a tremendous talent for filling up a box score but not making the plays necessary to win games. They are likely going to have to win at least one and maybe two of Chargers, Vikings, Commanders in order to lock down the division.

I like the way Tampa Bay is playing. When they are at their best, the offense is balanced and explosive and the defense is stout. The problem this team has faced all year is their inconsistency. For their final six games, only the Chargers have a winning record. A 5-1 finish gives them ten wins and puts a lot of pressure on Atlanta for the division crown and also on Washington for the final wild card spot.

NFC North
Overconfidence might be the biggest opponent the Lions face the rest of the season. They still have division matchups to worry about, but if they get too comfortable there are a few other games that could trap them. It’s easier being the hunter than the hunted.

The Vikings could go 4-2 over their final six games just as easily as they could finish 2-4. A playoff spot is nearly locked up for them, but every week it feels like they are just barely getting these wins. Can they get a definitive win in December that announces to the league they are a team to fear in the playoffs?

If Green Bay commits to their run game the way they did against San Francisco, they will have no trouble making the playoffs. Jordan Love is still trying to get his groove going with his receivers after a trying season where everyone has missed a few games. Their playoff position is going to depend on how well they play against the Lions and Vikings down the stretch. The rest of their schedule is manageable.

NFC West
What a rats nest of a division we’ve got here. At this point none of these teams look like they can compete for a wild card spot. It’s going to take nine wins to get this division and I honestly don’t know who that will be at this point. All four teams have brutal schedules with matchups against the NFC North along with divisional games.

Arizona is still my pick to win this division right now. They might have the best defense in the division. They also have a 2-1 record in the division.

If Arizona falls, it’s going to be to the Rams. Stafford is the best quarterback in the division and Sean McVay is the best coach. They are going to win a game or two they aren’t favored in and pull out another late season surge.

The Seahawks are on a hot streak right now and the defense has certainly improved now that they have replaced their linebacker group. But a rookie coach and an inconsistent offense isn’t the best bet for a playoff run.

The 49ers are still alive, but injuries are piling up. They have a 1-3 record in the division so they will likely lose most tiebreakers for the division title.

There we go, a quick rundown of the divisions and their playoff chances. If your team wasn’t mentioned, well, better luck next year.

Power Rankings

Who is playing the best football right now? Last week rank in parenthesis ()

10. Houston (11)
    Bad loss to Tennessee, so how do they move up in the rankings? Because other teams had bad losses too.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (10)
    Not going to hit these guys too hard after the Harbaugh Bowl. But they need to get healthy if they want to finish the season strong.
12. Pittsburgh (4)
    Blew a great chance to lock down the division. Can they step up to the plate for what has to be the most difficult final month of a season I’ve ever seen?
13. Green Bay (8)
    Josh Jacobs needs to be the star of this offense going forward. Take the pressure off Love and let that defense rest on the sideline.
14. Minnesota (7)
    Their only losses this season are to the Lions and the Rams on a short week. Are we underestimating this team?
15. Baltimore (6)
    I was sure the defense would keep them from winning the division. It still might, but I’m liking what I’ve seen the past two weeks.
16. Kansas City (5)
    Patrick Mahomes finally has a good game and the defense doesn’t show up?
17. Philadelphia (3)
    Big challenge this week in Baltimore. We’ll know if this team is for real by the end of this week.
18. Buffalo (2)
    Will this team be better when they are fully healthy, or will they suffer chemistry issues trying to fit everyone on the field?
19. Detroit (1)
    The hype train is running wild, can they ever live up to it?

MVP Watch

Who are the players making the best case for the MVP award this year?

5. Jared Goff – efficiency is great, but wins tend to attract more votes
6. Lamar Jackson – stats are there, but can he lead this team deep into the playoffs?
7. Baker Mayfield – Tampa is going to surprise some people by making the playoffs, and Baker will be the catalyst.
8. Saquon Barkley – In a fair world, he’d win in a landslide. Then again in a fair world the Eagles would let him run it in from the 1 yard line instead of giving it Jalen Hurts
9. Josh Allen – This feels like his year.

Weekly Predictions

Next week’s games, who’s going to win and why?

Chicago at Detroit
Caleb Williams and the offense are playing much better since the change at offensive coordinator. But the Chicago defense has struggled to stop the run and here comes the Lions. This is going to be a closer game than many people think, but the Lions are just too much for this version of the Bears to handle. DET 27 – CHI 19

New York Giants at Dallas
Woof! This is almost as bad as having the Giants play the Panthers in Germany. Giants players are still upset Daniel Jones was released. I think the coaching staff has lost credibility in the locker room and the players are not going to play hard in a lost season. DAL 26 – NYG 16

Miami at Green Bay
It’s cold weather right? Zero degrees at kickoff? Tua says he’s ready to break these storylines, but this has been a Dolphins issue since Dan Marino. GB 24 – MIA 20

Las Vegas at Kansas City
Aiden O’Connell coming back, national spotlight on Black Friday? I mean doesn’t it just feel like a setup for the Raiders to shock the world again? I’ll be rooting for it, but I certainly won’t bet it! KC 31 – LV 20

Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta
The Ravens showed that this Chargers defense can be beat with the running game. Can Atlanta use their talented backs to generate a similar offense? They could, but they haven’t committed to that all season. Cousins is a sitting duck back there with a very good pass rush from the Chargers. Defense wins this game. LAC 23 – ATL 17

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Cincinnati is playing for their playoff lives. Both teams are coming into this game with extra rest. The key to this game will be whether the Pittsburgh pass rush can get to Burrow. If this turns into a shootout, Russell Wilson won’t be able to keep up. I think TJ Watt takes over this game and delivers a hard fought win. PIT 23 – CIN 21

Arizona at Minnesota
This could be a playoff preview! Marvin Harrison Jr is going to be a key indicator for this game. If he is able to match the stats of Justin Jefferson that will mean Kyler is pushing the ball downfield and the Cardinals should win. I just don’t think that is going to happen. MIN 30 – ARI 27

Indianapolis at New England
New England is starting to lose what made them special early in the season – playing hard on every play. Indianapolis committing to Richardson was the right call, he’s playing with more confidence. The Colts have better talent and something to play for. But if this game was four weeks ago, I’d be picking New England. IND 24 – NE 16

Seattle at New York Jets
Is Aaron Rodgers hurt? Are they cutting Davante Adams? Are they simply creating stories to try and distract from how horrible they are playing? Seattle has been playing well lately, and I think they have enough juice left to win a game on the road that could be tricky. SEA 30 – NYJ 27

Tennessee at Washington
Between these two teams, the Titans are playing better football right now. The defense is stout against the run and Will Levis has been creating explosive plays in the passing game. The Commanders are reeling, and this could be the wake up call they need to try and get things right going forward. TEN 29 – WAS 22

Houston at Jacksonville
Jacksonville is playing for pride, and messing up a division rival’s chances at the playoffs is the best motivation for a bad team. But just like the Giants, the issues here are with the coaching staff not the players. Even a motivated team is going to be undone by bad coaching. HOU 20 – JAX 16

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans
This is it, there’s no more room for error for the Rams. They need to win games like this if they are going to push for a playoff appearance. The Saints have been playing better after firing Dennis Allen, but they’ve been winning with gadgets rather than straight ahead football. Expect McVay to get his team prepared for whatever the Saints decide to do and pull out a fairly easy win. LAR 31 – NO 20

Tampa Bay at Carolina
The Panthers played their Super Bowl last week against the Chiefs. Do they have anything left for this week? The offense has been heavily dependent on Chuba Hubbard runs up the middle. I imagine Vita Vea will have something to say about that this Sunday. Baker and the boys are going to keep it rolling. TB 34 – CAR 23

San Francisco at Buffalo
The 49ers are still dealing with a lot of injuries. Even if Purdy is able to play, they just don’t have the firepower on the offense to keep up with Josh Allen and James Cook. BUF 31 – SF 17

Cleveland at Denver
Primetime for Bo Nix. The whole nation is finally going to get to see him play. We’ll see how well he handles that spotlight. The Browns running game looked good against Pittsburgh last week in the snow. If it’s another bad weather game could they pull it out again? DEN 17 – CLE 16

Game of the week:

Philadelphia at Baltimore

The two biggest free agent moves of the offseason are going head to head this week! Derrick Henry vs Saquon Barkley. If you add in Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs, you can see how important running backs are to this league. Look at the four teams that got these players and the four teams they left. Quite the difference in win/loss.

But this is game is going to be decided by which quarterback can take advantage of their opportunities in the passing game. Baltimore’s pass defense has improved over the past two weeks, but they are facing a much more powerful offense in Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts to AJ Brown can exploit their coverages and create space for Barkley in the run game and catching outlet passes.

Philadelphia’s defense has been improving all season and now stand as one of the top units in the league. But dealing with the dual threat of Lamar Jackson will test their pass rush and put pressure on their rookie starters in the secondary. Can Lamar continue to find explosive plays in the pass game?

Normally, I’d bet on this being a close low scoring game. Both teams trying to play ball control with their dominant running games, and trying to protect their defenses. But I think these two coaching staffs are willing to play a high scoring shoot out and let the chips fall where they may. In a shoot out, Philadelphia has just a little more fire power. PHI 38 – BAL 31

Well that’s it for Thankgiving week. I hope the holidays find you in good health and having more than you need. I once heard that if you have more it is better to build a longer table than a higher wall. I hope everyone finds their way to longer tables! Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!