What a two week run for the Buffalo Bills. A 44 – 42 loss to the Rams and then a 48 – 42 win against the Lions has provided nothing but the most exciting games two weeks straight. But here’s the thing. Since week seven, the Bills haven’t scored less than thirty points in any game. The defense held Tennessee, Seattle, and San Francisco to only ten points. So what flipped? What changed that has the Bills allowing so many points the past two weeks? It’s a question I’m sure their coaching staff is losing sleep over.

The playoffs are coming up fast. In the regular season, teams can pile up wins in a lot of ways. Shootouts, defensive struggles, field goal battles, or just luck of the draw – getting teams that are struggling on your schedule. But the playoffs are different. Once you get there, you have to play your best every week. What exactly does that mean?

Teams that win in the playoffs are able to control the line of scrimmage – on offense AND defense.

We usually measure that by saying the phrase “run the ball and play good defense”. But it goes deeper than that, especially in this new age of offense where passing is sixty to seventy percent of the play calls. Controlling the line of scrimmage on offense now means protecting the quarterback (sacks) and getting some kind of ground attack. On defense, it means pressure on the quarterback (sacks) and stopping the run. And this is what brings us back to Buffalo and their defense.

The Bills are struggling to get pressure on the quarterback without blitzing. Against Stafford and Goff, blitzing just opens up the passing lanes they need to make big plays. And that’s exactly what we saw in those games. Buffalo on offense is controlling everything. They are the best offense in the AFC, and maybe the whole NFL. But they need to fix that defensive pressure to get to the Super Bowl.

As for the rest of the contenders?

Baltimore’s defense is unpredictable. Pittsburgh is struggling to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball now. Detroit, with their injuries, can’t control the defensive line. Kansas City, can’t protect their quarterback.

But . . .

Philadelphia, great control of both sides. Green Bay, great control of both sides. Minnesota, great on defense, good on offense. And don’t sleep on the Rams and Bucs. They are improving each week.

A Lions, or Chiefs, or Bills loss early in the playoffs might seem like an upset. But if they can’t figure out how to get better at the line of scrimmage, it most certainly will happen.

Stories I’m Following

It’s the end of the season and of course we should expect some teams to sit veterans and play some reserves in order to get some film on them. Offseason evaluations are going to start soon and they need to know what they have going forward. But four teams made decisions this week at the quarterback position that I found fascinating.

Cleveland has decided to start Dorian Thompson-Robinson over Jameis Winston. This makes a lot sense to me. The entire league knows what they are going to get from Jameis. Cleveland is going into next season with Deshaun Watson still under contract. He was awful this season. Jameis was an upgrade, but he’s the player than can lead this team to a playoff. The Browns need to know if DTR is the guy that can follow Watson and be the leader of this team. If not, they are going to need to look for ways to replace the entire quarterback room this offseason.

Tennessee has benched Will Levis and is turning to Mason Rudolph. Again, we know who Mason Rudolph is and what he offers as a starting quarterback. This is more a statement by the coaching staff that Will Levis is not the guy going forward. He’s got talent, he can make big throws, but he makes too many errors. Levis will likely bounce around the league for a another year or two as a backup, but I don’t think teams are going to invest heavily in him going forward.

Carolina has come out in support of Bryce Young. He had a bad game against Dallas. Too many turnovers early, and it seemed to sap him of his confidence. He had been playing well up to that point, so seeing a bit of a regression was disappointing. But he’s allowed a bad game. It happens to everyone. The team standing behind him shows that they still believe he can be their starting quarterback. Hopefully, that will take some of the stress of getting benched off him and he can get back to playing with confidence.

Finally, the Falcons have made the switch I’ve been calling for since before the bye week. Much has been made of the struggles Cousins has been having lately. I won’t rehash that. What I will say is that switching this late in the season is not a magic cure-all that will get the Falcons into the playoffs. Penix is coming in at a bad time. The matchup is good (Giants) but the pressure of trying to save a season is too much for any rookie to have to bear. He’s going to make rookie mistakes. He’s going to throw interceptions. The coaching staff, and especially the fanbase, needs to show patience. This is a move to prepare for 2025 not to save 2024.

Tale of the Tape

Not one but two unforced fumbles at the goal line? Guess it’s time for that annual reminder to the players that celebrations start after you score, not before!

The Commanders almost lost to the Saints, but the game should never have been that close. Daniels had McLaurin wide open for three big plays in the second half. He overthrew him on a sure touchdown, McLaurin dropped another one that could have scored, and there was a miscommunication on the third. Any one of those could have salted away the win. Missing all three is inexcusable for this offense. They aren’t good enough yet to overcome those types of mistakes.

Is there a more terrifying combination in the NFL right now than Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans?

Anthony Richardson is taking heat for the loss at Denver. And yeah, he didn’t make the plays he needed to. But the turning point of the game was a gadget play where the wide receiver threw the ball back across the field and it was intercepted and returned for a touchdown. That’s more of a coaching decision than an execution problem. Let’s make sure the coaching staff gets a fair share of the blame for this game.

Houston got the win against Miami, but still couldn’t neutralize the interior rush of Miami’s defense. And that might be the first time all season someone has commented on Miami’s interior rush. That’s how bad the Texans’ offensive line is playing.

Doesn’t it feel like Aaron Rodgers figured out no other team is going to want him next year so he decided to win a couple games so the Jets can’t draft his replacement?

The biggest issue Pittsburgh had last week wasn’t the poor passing game, the injury to Watt, or even the lack of success in the running game. In the fourth quarter, Philadelphia got the ball and held it for a 21 play drive that took the final ten and a half minutes off the clock. If the defense can’t get a stop and get the ball back to the offense, this team is in trouble come playoff time.

Power Rankings

Who is playing the best football right now? Last week rank in parenthesis ()

10. Los Angeles Rams (13)
    Roller coaster season for the Rams, but they look like they are finally getting the pieces together for a late run.
11. Tampa Bay (10)
    Big win against the Chargers, Vita Vea is a force in the middle of their defense.
12. Pittsburgh (6)
    Their second half schedule will tell us all we need to know about their chances of advancing in the playoffs.
13. Baltimore (8)
    Is their defense getting better or is their competition getting worse?
14. Green Bay (7)
    Third in their division by record, but could they end up being the second best team in the NFC this year?
15. Kansas City (5)
    It’s not just that Mahomes got hurt, it’s the fact that they haven’t been able to protect him all season.
16. Detroit (1)
    Injuries matter and Detroit is leading the league now. Losing Montgomery for the season is huge for the playoffs.
17. Minnesota (4)
    Right now I trust this Vikings team more than the Lions to win their final three games.
18. Buffalo (3)
    The offense is playing great, the defense not so much. That’s the only thing keeping them out of the top spot this week.
19. Philadelphia (2)
    They showed that they can still move the ball through the air last week. Maybe the most complete team in the league right now.

MVP Watch

Who are the players making the best case for the MVP award this year?

5. Joe Burrow – Can the Bengals front office ever look Burrow in the eye again if they don’t resign Chase and Higgins?
6. Lamar Jackson – Can Jackson have a big game against a top defense before we anoint him with another MVP?
7. Baker Mayfield – It’s not just the stats, it’s his toughness and will to win that puts him in the running for an MVP.
8. Saquon Barkley – Now that they are throwing the ball, who’s going to mention that Barkley needs more touches?
9. Josh Allen – This is his year.

Weekly Predictions

Next week’s games, who’s going to win and why?

Denver at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers had a chance to dispel the narrative that they couldn’t beat a winning team last week. They got blown out. Denver isn’t much better, but they look like a better team right now. DEN 23 – LAC 19

Houston at Kansas City
The Texans managed to get a win and clinch their division last week. But they still have a big problem in the middle of their offensive line. Not an ideal time to go up against Chris Jones. Houston’s defense is no slouch, but even if Mahomes is limited, the Chiefs are the better team. KC 24 – HOU 17

Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense have something to prove in this game after laying an egg in the first meeting. In fact, the Ravens haven’t played great football against a good defense in a while. The Steelers have a chance to lock down the division this week, but with injuries to TJ Watt and George Pickens, I don’t think they have the firepower to keep up with the Ravens. BAL 31 – PIT 20

New York Giants at Atlanta
Michael Penix is getting his first start and this is a good matchup for it. The Giants defense has not been as aggressive as it was at the beginning of the year. They are simply waiting for the offseason at this point. But the offense is still playing hard and could put up some points against a Falcons defense that hasn’t been great at anything lately. If Penix struggles, this could be the end of the Falcons’ season. I think he’s going to show off the strong arm and accuracy that made him a top ten pick. ATL 27 – NYG 23

Detroit at Chicago
I would say the Bears are playing for pride in this game, but they haven’t provided any evidence to prove it. The Lions are still holding out hope that Montgomery might be able to play even if it’s on a limited basis. In actuality this is the perfect game to get used to the new reality they will be dealing with going into the playoffs – Can Gibbs carry the load? DET 26 – CHI 20

Cleveland at Cincinnati
DTR is starting for Cleveland this week and he should give the offense a boost. But Cincinnati is playing too well, and I think Burrow is trying to make the case that the team needs to resign his wide receivers. Look for another big game from Burrow, Chase and Higgins. CIN 29 – CLE 16

Tennessee at Indianapolis
How well are the Colts players handling the loss in Denver? Their playoff chances are all but gone and the team seems lost at the quarterback position. Fortunately, they are playing a Tennessee team that is dealing with many of the same problems. IND 17 – TEN 16

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers would like to continue proving he’s not completely washed up just yet. Davante Adams is looking to add to his resume in case he’s looking for a new job at the end of the season. The Jets are going to play spoiler at the end of the season. Stafford doesn’t have the best record against Rodgers, and I think he’ll be properly motivated to keep this from being a trap game. The Rams defensive front is going to be in Rodgers lap most of the afternoon. LAR 20 – NYJ 17

Arizona at Carolina
The Cardinals have proven all season that they can compete with anyone and lose to anyone depending on their level of effort. It’s hard to predict that effort level on a week to week basis. I flipped a coin and it said this is an effort week. ARI 24 – CAR 20

Minnesota at Seattle
The Vikings defensive front has a chance to do something special this week. The Seattle offensive line has struggled all season. Even if the Minnesota offense struggles on the road, their defense will keep them in the game. MIN 26 – SEA 22

New England at Buffalo
This is the week Buffalo gets their defense right. BUF 31 – NE 10

Jacksonville at Las Vegas
Two teams that are in the running for the number on overall pick. Hopefully pride doesn’t get in the way of doing the right think (I’m talking to you Las Vegas!) Get ready for the craziest ways to lose a game. JAX 10 – LV 9

San Francisco at Miami
More drama in San Francisco and the Dolphins have lost their chance at a playoff berth. Which team is going to put the past behind them and play for pride? The Niners feel like a team that still has something to play for. SF 23 – MIA 20

Tampa Bay at Dallas
This is a crazy under-the-radar game that could be fantastic football. Dallas has found a little life in their offense behind Rico Dowdle and CeeDee Lamb. Tampa Bay is charging towards the playoffs behind a very formidable offense. Could this be the wild and crazy game of the week? I’d like to think so. TB 41 – DAL 34

New Orleans at Green Bay
The Saints, injured, on the road, outside, in the cold, still don’t have a chance in this game. Watch Green Bay run the ball early and sit their starters in the fourth quarter. GB 31 – NO 16

Game of the week:

Philadelphia at Washington
The Commanders got a big win last week that nearly locked up a wild card berth. But it wasn’t pretty, and they should feel lucky they didn’t lose it on the final play of the game. They’ve been struggling lately to put together a full four quarter game. Jayden Daniels is still making plays, but his accuracy has slipped a little. The running game isn’t as strong. The defense is still weak through the middle. But here’s the thing, they still find ways to win. Can they prove their worth in a big divisional game?

The Eagles are winning in all phases of the game. In fact, the drama two weeks ago about AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts might have just been a way to break up the monotony of winning. They are great in the running game, they’ve proven they can get chunk yards and scoring plays out of the passing game. But more importantly, the defense has become the top unit in the league. This is a very dangerous team when the playoffs come, but can they maintain their focus throughout the final games of the regular season?

The Eagles defensive front will slow the Commanders run game and get pressure on Daniels. But will they be able to match his athleticism and keep him in the pocket? I doubt it. We’ll likely see Daniels as the Commanders leading rusher in this game. A healthy dose of Saquon, both running and catching passes over the middle, will be enough to get the Eagles the win and clinch the division. PHI 31 – WAS 20

Well that’s it for Week 16. Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!