Black Monday is coming up quick – the day after the final Sunday of the regular season where coaches on the hot seat find out if they are getting fired. If it’s like other seasons, about a quarter of the league will be looking for a new coach this offseason. There are a lot of rumors out there – who’s in/who’s out, trades, which coordinators are going to be hot coaching candidates, etc. I’m not going to get into those rumors until next week after the carnage has settled a little.
But I do want to talk generally about what teams should be looking for if they do decide to look for a new coach. Conventional wisdom right now says offensive coaches are more successful. There is also the thought that young coordinators are better hires than head coaches who have previous experience. This season just hasn’t borne that out. Of the coaches that took over programs for the 2024 season, experience won out – by a lot. If you look at Seattle, Washington and Atlanta you’ll find defensive coaches with winning records. In Tennessee and Carolina you’ll find first year offensive coaches with losing records. Now it’s only their first year and I’m not predicting anything about how their careers will end up. I just want to debunk these myths at the top.
The most successful coaches are the ones that can bring an identity to a club. They own the locker room. And they aren’t threatened by bringing in top talent as their coordinators and position coaches. Think Dan Campbell, Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton, and DeMeco Ryans. All of them have taken over perennial losing franchises and turned them around quickly.
The new coach also needs to have a relationship with the franchise quarterback. Either the one already on staff, or the one they are bringing in through the draft or free agency. This is where the myth of needing an offensive coach comes in. But let’s look at the Bears and Commanders from this season. Both teams had defensive coaches and drafted rookie quarterbacks. Washington brought in a superstar offensive coordinator to work with their rookie quarterback. Chicago, did not. And what happened? Washington is going to the playoffs with their Rookie of the Year, and Chicago is picking in the top ten in the draft again, fired their coach, and are looking at a rookie quarterback that is going to need serious coaching help to save his career.
Let’s look at another example in Minnesota and Detroit. Sam Darnold had been passed around the league, looking like a bust as a starter. His future was going to be as a career backup until he found his way into Kevin O’Connell’s system. Now he’s a Pro Bowl caliber player and leading his team into the playoffs. Jared Goff was struggling with the Rams. Even with great coaching from Sean McVay, Goff wasn’t living up to his potential. Once he made it to Detroit, he found a system that fit his skill set. Now he’s on a team that is favored to win the Super Bowl.
The point being, the relationship between the head coach and the quarterback has to be solid. So what should teams be looking for then in a new head coach?
First and foremost, experience. Rookie coaches can develop into good experienced coaches, but they don’t come in ready to lead a team. If you want to turn your fortunes, find a coach who has done it before.
Second, self awareness. If this is a defensive coach, are they willing to bring in quality offensive coaches to help? And vice versa for offensive coaches.
Third, quarterbacks. What is the plan for the quarterback room? Veteran free agent? Rookie to develop? Stick with the players currently on the team? And then how will that position get developed? How will that relationship grow?
Big names don’t matter. Big ideas don’t matter. Strong personalities don’t matter. What matters is bringing in a guy who can turn a losing franchise into a winner. Here’s hoping that the half dozen or so teams that are looking for a new head coach can get it right this year!
Playoff Rankings
Who is the best of the best?
- Den/Atl/Mia/Cin
The group that doesn’t know if they are going to be in the playoffs or not. Cincinnati is the only team here that has a chance to make noise if they make it. - Los Angeles Chargers
This team is two years away from being legitimately good. They need more playmakers on both sides of the ball. Don’t get fooled by their rankings – they played an incredibly soft schedule. - Houston
The offensive line has been bad, and CJ Stroud took a step back this season. That’s the headline. But it hides the fact that the Houston defense has been very good all season long. - Washington
Great story, but the Commanders aren’t on par with the rest of the playoff teams. I’d feel better if their running back room was healthy and dominant like at the beginning of the season. - Los Angeles Rams
Can Stafford and McVay make a deep run in the playoffs? The NFC is so loaded with good teams this year, it’s hard to see them going much further than a wild card win. - Pittsburgh
The Russell Wilson factor is in full effect. This team has lost their identity and feel like a first round loss again. - Baltimore
The defense has looked better recently, but is that because they have fixed their issues or played lesser teams? Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have combined to form a very potent offense, but Jackson’s playoff history is inconsistent to say the least. - Green Bay
Detroit, Minnesota, and Philadelphia are their only losses. But good losses only matter in college football. Here, they are going to have to beat two of those teams to make the Super Bowl. Not this year Packers fans. - Tampa Bay
One of the hottest teams in the league right now. They also beat the Lions earlier this year. Could they shock the world and beat them again in a first round rematch? - Detroit
Injuries on defense have forced them to play shootouts at the end of the season. And that hasn’t slowed them down one bit. If they can get healthy, or better yet a first round bye, this is the most dangerous team in the league. - Buffalo
Is this Buffalo’s year? The defense has slipped lately, and that’s not a great sign going into the playoffs. But Josh Allen is playing the best football of his career. - Philadelphia
Jalen Hurst is still in concussion protocol. If he isn’t ready for the playoffs, all bets are off. But with him in the lineup, I can pencil this team in for one half of the NFC Championship game. - Minnesota
Right now, this is the most balanced team in football. Good on offense, good on defense. Good passing game, good running game. Great pass rush, good coverage teams. Complementary football, winning in multiple ways, this is a team that will be very tough to beat in the playoffs. - Kansas City
Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and home field advantage. We’ve seen this before, and we know how this ends.
Awards Predictions
This is a hard year for these types of predictions. There hasn’t been a great standout defense so far. Definitely some good ones, but overall it was a down year for defenses. It was a down year for defensive players in the draft as well. Hard to find a group of standout defensive rookies this year. We also had some very good non-quarterback offensive performances. There are players that have absolutely earned MVP consideration, but won’t get it because they don’t play quarterback. So, I’m a bit stuck on these. Do I predict who I think will win, or who I think should win?
Most Valuable Player – Josh Allen
If you look at the stats between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, they are very similar. Allen gets the nod for two reasons – better overall record AND he beat Kansas City. But there are two people who I think did more to keep their teams in the playoff hunt, with less talent around them. Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield absolutely deserve consideration for the MVP award. Burrow is having a historic year in terms of stats, and if he could have gotten just a little support from his defense this year, we might be talking about Cincinnati as the best team in the league. Baker pulled Tampa out of the doldrums mid-season, navigated massive injuries to the wide receiver position, and still put up fantastic numbers to get the Bucs into the playoffs when most people were ready to leave them for dead.
Defensive Player of the Year – TJ Watt
It’s a tough year for defenses. Yes there are players with better sack numbers. But is there a player who had a bigger impact throughout the season? It’s the six forced fumbles that pushed him over the top for me. Trey Hendrickson played fantastic, but the Bengals defense doesn’t deserve any accolades. Myles Garrett had a good season, but the Browns were bad. Patrick Surtain has some juice as a betting favorite for the title, but a shutdown corner just doesn’t make the same impact as a pass rusher in this era.
Offensive Player of the Year – Saquon Barkley
Two questions have to be answered here. First, is the receiving triple crown (JaMarr Chase) more impressive than a 2,000 yard rushing season? Second, why aren’t these performances worthy of MVP talk? Barkley gets the nod because of how the running back position has morphed over the years. Two thousand yards is highly impressive, especially with a reverse leap frog on the highlight reel.
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Jared Verse
The Rams defensive line has improved steadily over the season. This is a case of “Someone has to win it” rather than picking a player that has really stood out from the crowd. Could someone else snatch the award? Like maybe a young defensive back from Philadelphia? Sure.
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Jayden Daniels
Bo Nix might be the better pocket quarterback. Bucky Irving has played great in Tampa. Brock Bowers is breaking records – but not at an impact position. Jayden Daniels has shown he’s a two way threat, and he has media love. The hail mary against Chicago sealed this award for him.
Coach of the Year – Kevin O’Connell
Sam Darnold was a failed quarterback at New York. He failed at Carolina. He couldn’t beat out a seventh round draft choice in San Francisco. But in Minnesota, he’s become a Pro Bowl quarterback leading one of the most powerful offenses in the league. That’s the power of good coaching. What Kevin O’Connell has done this year, to get this team to the top of the mountain is absolutely fantastic leadership.
Weekly Predictions
The final week of the season is always hard to predict. Which teams are sitting starters? Which teams still have something to play for? Which coaches are coaching for their jobs? Throw the records out the window this week. This is about pride, protection, and positioning.
Cleveland at Baltimore
This one is pretty easy, the Ravens have something to play for and the Browns don’t. BAL 31 – CLE 20
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
The Steelers need a win and a Baltimore loss in order to win the decision and get a home playoff game. Cincinnati needs to win and get a lot of help just to make the playoffs. Will the Steelers rest players after watching the Ravens beat the Browns? CIN 27 – PIT 22
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers need to win to clinch the NFC South. They should have no problem with the injury plagued Saints. TB 33 – NO 16
New York Giants at Philadelphia
This game is just division rivalry pride. Can the Giants beat the Eagles JV team? Not this year. PHI 17 – NYG 13
Buffalo at New England
The Patriots are in line for the first pick in the draft. Winning this game could cost them all of the potential draft capital they could get trading down to a quarterback needy team. Even if they could beat the Bills, it’s in their best interests to lose this game. BUF 20 – NE 16
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
The Colts lost badly to the Giants last week and cost themselves a playoff chance. This team is too good to end the season with two bad losses. IND 23 – JAX 20
Houston at Tennessee
The Texans are locked into the four seed, so playing their starters doesn’t make much sense here. But this is a team that still has some issues to work out before the playoffs. I’d like to see the starters play at least the first half and that should be enough to build a big enough lead to win this game. HOU 19 – TEN 16
Chicago at Green Bay
The Bears have nothing to play for except pride. The Packers are trying to keep out of the number seven spot and a trip to Philly in the first round of the playoffs. GB 24 – CHI 20
Washington at Dallas
Mike McCarthy is likely coaching his final game in Dallas. This is a resume game after getting blown out by Philly. But are there enough healthy starters to compete with Washington who will be playing for a better playoff seed? WAS 26 – DAL 17
Carolina at Atlanta
Had Atlanta made the change to Penix earlier in the season, they might have had a better shot at making the playoffs. I understand not wanting to rush the decision, but it feels like this ended up a lost season for a talented offensive group. They’ll get the win and put pressure on the Bucs, but this is more about getting extra experience for Penix than competing this season. ATL 27 – CAR 23
San Francisco at Arizona
The 49ers have already announced they are playing their backups in this game. If the Cardinals continue to play their young starters to help them get more experience, they should be able to handle it. ARI 23 – SF 15
Miami at New York Jets
This is one of those cold weather games that Miami needs to win. So of course they’ll lay an egg and lose it rather convincingly. Besides, Aaron Rodgers needs to add another win to the record to ensure the Jets can’t draft his replacement in the first round. Gotta maintain that job security! NYJ 27 – MIA 20
Seattle at Los Angeles Rams
I don’t think the Rams are going to risk injury to any of their star players before the playoffs. If the starters do play, I’d only expect to see them for a quarter or so. SEA 20 – LAR 13
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas
Antonio Pierce is likely done in Las Vegas. He’s now coaching for his next job wherever that might be. The Chargers are locked in to a wild card berth so they may want to rest a few players in a fairly meaningless game. LV 24 – LAC 20
Kansas City at Denver
How funny would it be if Kansas City decided to beat Denver just to ensure Cincinnati made the playoffs and faced the Bills in the first round? Funny, but not practical. DEN 24 – KC 20
Game of the week:
Minnesota at Detroit
Isn’t this really the only game on the schedule we all care about?
Minnesota has been playing underrated football practically all season. If Darnold can push the ball downfield to his receivers and keep the turnovers to one or less, the Vikings have a great shot at winning this game. Aaron Jones needs to have a productive day, converting on short yardage plays and helping the offense stay on the field.
Detroit is still reeling with their defensive injuries. But I’m interested in seeing if Jared Goff can handle the blitz packages from Minnesota. Goff has been great all season against the blitz – except in the games where the pressure has actually gotten home. If he’s under pressure and taking hits, his accuracy and patience tend to disappear.
Only the Houston defense has really shut down this Detroit offense this season, and even then it wasn’t enough to beat them. I expect the Vikings defense to mirror some of the things the Texans did well against the Lions. Getting pressure on Goff will be priority number one. If they can slow down the Lions offense, Darnold and the rest of the Vikings offense will do the rest. MIN 38 – DET 30
Well that’s it for the regular season. Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!