Week three came and went and there was no Tale of the Tape to mark the occasion. If you read the Hits and Misses column, I mentioned there wouldn’t be this week, but I didn’t say why. Well, I was out of town Monday/Tuesday and I knew I wasn’t going to be able to review the games for that column. So no major mystery there, just life getting in the way.

Anyway, I wanted to touch on a couple of the things I did see in the film study here as we get ready for week four.

The five man defensive front is making a comeback. Last week I wrote about how Minnesota used a five man front to slow down the San Francisco attack. They used it again when they faced Houston and it had the same impact. Philadelphia used it against New Orleans to help shut down their running game and get extra pressure on Derek Carr.

And to be clear, this isn’t just bringing a safety into the box or having an inside linebacker drift up at the snap. Minnesota and Philadelphia were using five down lineman at times throughout the game. It’s overwhelming the offensive lines and closing cutback lanes for the running backs. Teams are starting to notice.

Purdy vs Stafford. This was an interesting game to watch. It was sloppy at times and full of penalties that really hurt both teams. But ultimately it came down to these two guys and who made the plays and who didn’t. Now I’m not taking anything away from Purdy who played a great game. But Stafford showed the kid what it takes to finish a game. Before we focus on the final five minutes of the game I just want to point out two other plays: the fake punt and the strip sack. Down 0-14 the Rams converted on the fake punt and kept the drive going. It got them back in a game that was quickly turning into a blowout. Stafford understood the momentum changing play that it was and capitalized on it. Then at the end of the half, San Francisco was driving and in field goal range or close to it. Purdy gets sacked and fumbled. No points, end of half. Had he converted that into a field goal, maybe its a different game.

Anyway, final five minutes. Purdy has the ball and a seven point lead. The Rams went coverage – only rushing three. There was no pressure on Purdy, but he couldn’t get the ball downfield. He chewed up clock as best he could, but the drive stalled and they missed the long field goal. A first down likely wins the game there, and he missed that opportunity. Stafford replies with a deep throw to the goal line and the tying touchdown. Purdy gets it back and again, just needs to move the ball for a field goal. Again the drive stalls. The clock barely moved. The play calling should have been for “win or overtime, Stafford never gets the ball back.” But instead, they punted, and the coverage team whiffed. Big return, a couple passes and Stafford is the winner.

Purdy needs to be better at situational football in order to get to the next level. Understanding momentum plays, when to keep the clock rolling, and the importance of holding on to the ball late – he’s going to learn these, but until he does, games like this are going to happen.

Stories I’m Following

All season long I’m going to be keeping tabs on some of the most interesting stories in the NFL. (Rookie QBs, WR holdouts, Coaching Retreads)
At the start of the season I said I wanted to follow three interesting stories through the season: Coaching retreads, wide receiver hold-outs, and the rookie quarterbacks. So let’s do a quick check in on how that’s going.

Coaching retreads – it’s still early in the season and hard to tell for sure how they are doing. I will say that compared to the first time coaches, I think they are ahead in culture building. That experience they bring with them is helping get the locker room focused in the same direction. I’m going to be more critical once we reach the halfway point in the season. By then we should know better how these coaches are fairing.

The rookie quarterbacks are still getting way too much attention in the media. Too much hype when they win, too much blame when they lose. Nix and Daniels are obviously way ahead of Williams in their development. Even Maye got a few reps last week. There’s still a long way to go this season.

The wide receiver hold outs, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and Brandon Aiyuk are a very interesting case. I said from the beginning that holding out during the preseason was going to hurt their production early in the season. Fortunately, they have avoided injury so far, which was a real concern if they weren’t in football shape by week one. That said, their production is off – and not just off from their past. It’s off compared to their contemporaries. In fact, it’s off from the rookies that just got to the league!

For comparison (rec/yds/td)

Lamb (13/218/1)
Chase (16/215/2)
Aiyuk (11/119/0)
Total: (40/552/3)

Harrison, Jr (10/198/3)
Nabors (23/271/3)
Odunze (9/156/1)
Total: (42/625/7)

But let’s go a little deeper. The records between the vets 2-7 is worse than the rookies 3-6, in case you are thinking the rookies are running up stats in losing efforts. Or maybe you are thinking they have better quarterbacking? Dak, Burrow, Purdy vs Murray, Jones, Williams? Which group of quarterbacks would you want?

The bottom line is the rookies are outperforming these vets and are doing it on relatively cheap rookie contracts. You can bet every executive is looking at these numbers and trying to calculate the cost per catch/yard/td on their veterans. Are Dallas, Cincinnati and San Francisco going to be able to continue signing their free agents? Or did they kill their cap signing these contracts when a cheaper rookie deal could net the same production?

This is the kind of realization that happened with the running back position several years ago. Teams realized they didn’t have to pay the veteran/star back to a big contract. The numbers showed that after age 30 those backs could no longer produce equal to the contract. So teams stopped paying them. The wide receiver position could be next. I used the top three draft picks in my comparison, but honestly Odunze isn’t the third best rookie wide receiver right now.

The Chiefs managed to win two Super Bowls after letting Tyreek Hill walk in free agency. I expect other teams are going to look at that model.

Week in Review

• In a game with no punts and no turnovers, Cincinnati missed a field goal and kicked two others while Washington converted touchdowns. In case you are wondering why you are now out of your survivor pool.
• Did Tennessee trade the wrong QB to Green Bay?
• It’s not just that the Chargers have injuries. They have injuries to their best players. And that’s always been the trend. That’s a front office/personnel problem as much as it is a coaching/player problem.
• See Baltimore, Derek Henry plays better in the fourth quarter. You should keep feeding him the whole game.
• Bryce Young isn’t broken, he might be done. Andy Dalton showed there’s plenty of talent on this team if the quarterback can get the ball out of his hand.
• Detroit there’s room for Gibbs AND Montgomery on the field at the same time. Might even make defenses worry about who is getting the ball. Strategy.
• Just a reminder to those teams that play their home games in Florida, the goal is to score points on offense and stop the other team from scoring when you are on defense.
• Are the Giants actually playing passable offense this year?
• Is Kansas City putting off 2023 Philadelphia vibes? Winning, but shouldn’t be?
• CJ Stroud finally played a bad game. How well is he going to bounce back?
• Kyren Williams front flip into the end zone was the pre-celebration I didn’t know I needed.
• Raiders don’t have a quarterback controversy, they have a defensive identity controversy. Top ranked defenses don’t get gashed on the ground like this. Business decisions indeed.
• Jalen Hurts is getting a pass as long as AJ Brown is out, but he shouldn’t be.
• Is the 49er defense still elite?
• Could the winner of the NFC East AND the NFC South both have a losing record this year?

Power Rankings

Who is playing the best football right now?

So in order to do these power rankings each week, I actually do rank all 32 teams first. I just don’t care to write about the teams outside the top ten. Maybe as we get closer to mid-season I’ll list out the full 32, we’ll see. But I bring this up because there are blocks of the rankings that are really difficult. Twenty to twenty five is challenging. So is eight to fifteen.

The Giants, Broncos, and Commanders are the teams that made the biggest jumps in my rankings. It just wasn’t enough to reach the top ten. The Raiders and Falcons are the biggest fallers.

Who just missed the top ten? Teams that have winning records but against bad teams like Washington, New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers. And two teams, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia that have good wins and bad losses. But right now, based on the eye test, these are the top ten teams over the first three weeks of the season.

10. New Orleans
    A last second loss doesn’t completely wipe away the two dominant wins the Saints have put up. What is concerning though is that Carr continued to show he can be rattled with pressure up the middle. Can he continue to stand in and throw deep to keep defenses honest? If not they will load the box to stop Kamara just like Philadelphia did.
11. Green Bay
    Losing Jordan Love dropped them in the rankings early. But never underestimate quality coaching and young talent. They have modified their offense on the fly, maximizing the skillsets of their players. Matt LaFleur deserves to be the front runner for coach of the year right now.
12. Seattle
    The schedule hasn’t provided much of test for this team, but they have come through by doing what they needed to each week. And confidence is building with this team. They are physical at the line of scrimmage and the defense looks solid. It also helps having a two game lead on the division.
13. Pittsburgh
    How is this Steeler team different than the Steeler teams of the past few years? The offense is still the weak link, but they are getting better quarterback play. The biggest difference is that this defense is finally living up to its billing.
14. Houston
    That was a bad loss in Minnesota, but that’s going to happen to a few teams this year. They really missed Joe Mixon in this game. Now is when Stefon Diggs can earn his position as a veteran leader. He can help keep the team focused or he can be a distraction the next time the ball doesn’t go to him.
15. Baltimore
    This is a tough one. This team could easily be 3-0 and number one on this list. They also almost let Dallas come back and win and could be 0-3 and out of the top ten. But right now, how many teams in the league would you say could beat them without a doubt. A handful of teams feels right to me.
16. Detroit
    Detroit was the fun story last year and now they are shouldering the expectations of experts to make a deep run in the playoffs. Winning is boring now. It shouldn’t diminish how we see them though. They have big play potential and move the chains power on offense. If the defense holds up, they are going to end up right where we think they will.
17. Minnesota
    Sam Darnold’s renaissance and Justin Jefferson’s big plays are grabbing the headlines. But let’s send a little love to Brian Flores’ defensive schemes. He’s shut down the 49ers and Texans in back to back weeks.
18. Buffalo
    This might be a 1a 1b scenario. Buffalo has looked the most dominant of any team so far this year. But the quality of opponent has to be taken into account. We’ll know soon enough who belongs at the top, so let’s just enjoy watching what happens.
19. Kansas City
    They keep winning, but they keep letting their opponents stay in the game. The Pacheco injury is going to test their depth at running back. Whether they can overcome a lackluster run game will determine how far they can go this season.

MVP Watch

Who are the players making the best case for the MVP award this year?

5. Justin Jefferson – Big plays and lots of swag
6. Saquon Barkley – the difference between 2-1 and 0-3 is Barkley
7. TJ Watt – Even when he’s double teamed he makes an impact
8. Josh Allen – Best dual threat QB, pushing hard to take the title of best player on the best team
9. Patrick Mahomes – best player on the best team

Weekly Predictions

Dallas at New York Giants
I tried really hard to talk myself into picking the Giants here. They outplayed the Commanders, and if they had a backup kicking solution likely would be 2-1 right now. They have a talented wide receiver, a good running game and the defense has been playing much better than the one we saw the first week of the season. But Dallas has owned this matchup lately, and I trust Dak a little more than I trust Daniel Jones. DAL 27 – NYG 26

New Orleans at Atlanta
Atlanta has been battle tested over the first three weeks of the season. Their opponents are a combined 8-1 on the year, and the Falcons were competitive in all of those games. This will be a good measuring stick game for both teams. This could come down to which running back has the better game B. Robinson or A. Kamara. ATL 20 – NO 17

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago
Chicago really needs a win. The defense has been playing well, but the offense just can’t get out of neutral. Even when they are moving the ball they can’t seem to consistently generate points. The Rams are still without key starters, but Stafford and McVay understand how to get the most out of the guys on the field. The Rams might not be able to win this game on talent, but they have the coaching advantage and that should be enough. LAR 26 – CHI 16

Minnesota at Green Bay
Will Jordan Love play? If he isn’t one hundred percent healthy, I’d hold him out one more week. This Minnesota defense is getting after quarterbacks. I expect to see more five man fronts from the Vikings to shut down the Packer running game. Addison might be back this week, taking some pressure off Justin Jefferson. The Vikings just have a little more juice right now. MIN 31 – GB 20

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
Indianapolis, especially Anthony Richardson, play better at home. But this week they are running into a buzzsaw of a defense. The score will likely stay close, but only because I expect a lot of run plays to be called. Might be the fastest game on Sunday. PIT 16 – IND 13

Denver at New York Jets
Back to back east coast games will take a toll on Denver. Bo Nix continues to develop and he looked great against Tampa Bay. He picked on the Buccaneers’ outside corners last week, but that’s a strength for the Jets. Aaron Rodgers should get enough points to win, but until he commits to taking shots downfield this offense will continue to be slow and plodding. NYJ 23 – DEN 10

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Weather might be an issue with a hurricane bearing down on Florida this week. Even if it passes by, the field could be waterlogged and tough to run on. Power football and a running game could be the difference maker and that definitely favors the Eagles. PHI 23 – TB 16

Cincinnati at Carolina
The Bengals defense is atrocious. Burrow led an offense that didn’t punt, didn’t turn the ball over, and scored on every possession except for a missed field goal. And the game still felt like a blowout loss. Fortunately, they won’t have to worry about that this week with Carolina. Andy Dalton may have led the team to a victory in Las Vegas but he’s historically inconsistent. Besides I can’t imagine the Bengals at 0-4 with all this talent. CIN 27 – CAR 20

Jacksonville at Houston
CJ Stroud struggled last week in Minnesota. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen that kind of performance. Jacksonville gives them a great bounce back opportunity. The Jaguars are going to be desperate for a win and will play this game tough, but Houston just has too much talent. HOU 25 – JAX 12

New England at San Francisco
The Patriots got a wake up call last week against Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. This game might be worse. Any hope of having a winning season will disappear Sunday. SF 41 – NE 16

Cleveland at Las Vegas
Gut check time for two teams that want to build a tough, physical identity through power running and great defense. Neither team has shown much of that the first three weeks of the season. The Raiders locker room could be in disarray or it could be rallying depending on how Coach Pierce’s comments are received. I think the Raiders got embarrassed losing to Carolina and they’ll come out fired up early. Whether they can sustain that energy through the end of the game remains to be seen. LV 23 – CLE 20

Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers came in to the season behind the Chiefs and their injuries are making that talent disparity worse. Harbaugh will try to play a ball control run first offense to try and keep Mahomes on the sideline. If the Chiefs can get up by two scores, this Charger team won’t be able to come back. KC 31 – LAC 16

Buffalo at Baltimore
What is most impressive about Buffalo’s win last week is that they could have easily overlooked Jacksonville knowing that this monster matchup was coming. Baltimore is slowly learning how to play offense with Derrick Henry on the roster. They’ve allowed the Raiders and Cowboys to outplay them in the fourth quarters. If they can commit to Henry late in the game, it might be enough to power through a win. BAL 19 – BUF 16

Tennessee at Miami
Another game that might have field issues related to the hurricane. It’s probably a good thing because neither quarterback can be trusted to throw the ball a lot. The Titans defense is stout up front and can give the Miami run game fits. In a bit of shocker, I think Will Levis is going to play a clean game and that will be enough to escape with a win. TEN 23 – MIA 17

Seattle at Detroit
Seattle has had Detroit’s number lately. But this is actually the first game the Seahawks are going to have this season that will really test them. Geno Smith has been getting a little careless with his throws. He’s gotten away with it against some poor defensive schemes, but that won’t happen in Detroit. The Lions offense is diverse enough to give the Seahawks fits and as long Jared Goff protects the football they should win fairly comfortably. DET 26 – SEA 16

Game of the week:

Washington at Arizona

I’ve been tough on Jayden Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury. But that performance on Monday night against the Bengals was fantastic to watch. The problem for the rest of the league was how effortless Daniels makes it all look. He has a great stride that gets him up field in a hurry. His arm strength is phenomenal. And I like that he stayed in the pocket and tried to make plays with his arm.

That said, I’m still going to bang on the drum that Kingsbury needs to get Daniels used to going through his progressions. Successes like this can make the young man think he’s always going to be able to make plays with athleticism rather than study and true quarterback play.

And this week, he’s facing Kyler Murray. The previous young quarterback who failed to develop those skills. And who was his coach? That’s right, Kliff Kingsbury. It’s been well documented about Murray’s lack of studying, his love of video games, and his reliance on athleticism over game planning. He’s starting to turn the corner, but Murray is deep in his career still trying to overcome the bad habits Kingsbury allowed while he was the coach.

Arizona has been playing at a high level against top tier teams. Kyler is showing more confidence throwing the ball up for Harrison, Jr. and the defense has been stout. And Washington is almost a mirror image in style and substance. I just think there’s going to be a little bit of a letdown for Washington after their primetime special. This will be a good wakeup call for the Commanders and a reminder that they have to play at a high level every week. ARI 29 – WAS 23

Week three is in the books and we are on to week four. Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!