We’re a couple of weeks from the midpoint of the season. Every year there’s a debate about whether the AFC or the NFC is the tougher conference. When Tom Brady left the Patriots and was deciding on his next team, one of the rumored deciding factors was joining the NFC since it would be an easier conference to win.

It’s true the AFC has been considered the better conference for quite a while now. They’ve certainly had a long string of dominant quarterbacks and teams from Tom Brady and the Patriots, to Peyton Manning and the Colts, then Denver, and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. But what about now, which conference is the better one today?

Well the AFC still has Mahomes and the Chiefs so that is a big point in their favor. They also have Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, CJ Stroud, and Josh Allen. It’s a crazy amount of talent at the quarterback position. But if we take these teams and break them down into tiers, something very eye-opening happens.

At the top we have Chiefs and Ravens – maybe the two best teams in the league.

Next, Buffalo, Houston – playoff teams with a chance at making the Super Bowl

Then, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati? – teams that might make the playoffs but aren’t great this year.

Um, Indianapolis, Denver, Miami, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Jets – somehow two of these teams are likely to make the playoffs?

The Dregs, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, New England.

But in the NFC . . .

At the top we have Detroit and San Francisco – talented, but haven’t proved they can win the big game.

Next, Minnesota, Green Bay, Atlanta, Tampa Bay – teams with flaws but look like playoff teams that could make a surprise run

Um, Washington, Dallas, Chicago, Philadelphia, Seattle – only one of these teams is making the playoffs and it’ll be whoever wins the NFC East.

The Dregs, New York Giants, Arizona, Los Angeles Rams, Carolina, New Orleans.

Call me crazy but the Giants, Cardinals and Rams could still make a run. Arizona has played well against top teams, the Rams are injured but getting healthy, and the Giants play in a division that doesn’t have a well defined leader yet.

I’d say the AFC is extremely top heavy this year. The contenders are going to be Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston and Buffalo. But the NFC is going to have two or three teams with winning records that get left out of the playoffs. That’s a deep conference, and with Jayden Daniels, Jordan Love, and Caleb Williams they have a young core of quarterbacks that can challenge the AFC for years to come.

Stories I’m Following

The big news this week has been the Adams and Cooper trades. I’ve got a lot to say about those, but not the space here in this column. Check out this week’s Gridiron Voice Podcast. It’s a super sized edition this week because of stories like this that need attention. I want to mention it here in our ongoing look at the value of wide receivers.

A few weeks ago, I looked at how the top three draft picks were fairing against the three holdout wide receivers. It turns out the rookies got off to a faster start. And it proved the point we’ve been on very early this year – the wide receiver market is due for a significant financial change.

Look at these trades. Cooper is a legitimate number one caliber receiver. Adams is an aging veteran, but has hall of fame career stats, and is still a fantastic route runner. They were traded for essentially third round picks. Three years ago when the Falcons traded Julio Jones to the Titans they got a second and a fourth round pick in return. A year before that, the Texans sent DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals, in return they got a starting running back, a second round pick and a fourth round pick swap. These are comparable players at similar points in their careers.

I hear analysts talk about how the college game is catching up to the pro game with the development of wide receivers and quarterbacks. Actually the opposite is true. Pro teams are bringing in college schemes to their offensive playbooks and its easier now for wide receivers and quarterbacks to assimilate. So, yeah, the draft is bringing in more wide receivers that are pro ready. The Green Bay Packers have done a great job of building a very young wide receiver corps that is talented and productive and all on rookie contracts. I think that is going to be the standard a lot of teams, especially teams with wide open offenses, will adopt.

What does it mean for the veterans? Well Adams and Cooper can both expect to be cut after this year. They are going to have to go out and negotiate new contracts and they’ll be shocked at how low their value will be on the open market. Other players still in their prime looking for their next contract? They should look at Nico Collins and how his contract was structured rather than Brandon Aiyuk or Justin Jefferson.

Week in Review

• Seattle’s receivers are frustrated, is Geno or the system the problem?
• Poor England, they have to watch Jacksonville football two weeks in a row . . .
• . . . and New England.
• Good to see Doubs get involved in the offense and catch a touchdown
• Should we start a Will Levis game losing mistake Bingo board?
• How great would the Raiders be if they had pursued Flacco instead of Minshew?
• How does a team go from up 17-0 to down 20-17 to winning 51-27? That’s the roller coaster of Baker and the Bucs.
• Deshaun Watson needs to find one of these hamstring injuries and take four to six weeks off – just don’t let him get any massages!
• Jalen Hurts is great at 4th and 1, but the team would win more if he was better at 3rd and 10.
• Maybe the biggest threat to Lamar Jackson’s MVP campaign is Derrick Henry
• The “Peanut Punch” is alive and well
• Coaches always talk about Special Teams being a third part of the game. But this is the first year in a while where we’ve seen so many games decided by great or poor special teams play
• Apparently Cincinnati can only play good on offense or defense, not both, not in the same game
• Justin Fields may lose his starting job this year, but I think he earned it for next year
• Has Jerry Jones learned what “all in” means yet?
• Whether he believes it or not, Aaron Rodgers has earned all of these losses for the Jets

Power Rankings

Who is playing the best football right now?

10. Washington
    Tough loss on the road to a Super Bowl contender. Nothing to hang your head about. This was a great measuring stick for a team that has aspirations on winning the NFC East this year and competing for championships sooner than many thought. Jayden Daniels handled the pressure well – that’s a great sign for Commanders fans.
11. San Francisco
    Seattle hasn’t been playing great football the last few weeks, but this is still a much needed division win. McCaffery may not be getting back on the field soon, but the rest of this team is getting healthier. If the offense can find a rhythm going into the red zone, they could be back to their former selves soon.
12. Atlanta
    This team looks way better when they play a balanced attack on offense. Cousins has made a career out of play action passes, but that only happens if the defense respects the run game. Atlanta can win in October throwing the ball 50+ times, but when the games start getting tougher in January, they are going to need that run game.
13. Buffalo
    The defense is good enough. The run game is decent. The pass game is average. Everything seems hard for this team. There aren’t any easy yards, easy plays, or easy wins. Hopefully, adding Cooper changes that.
14. Green Bay
    Jordan Love has the offense clicking. He’s accurate and his receivers are making plays with yards after the catch. Josh Jacobs is a perfect compliment to the pass game, getting tough yards up the middle and forcing safeties to respect the run. The defense isn’t great, but it’s still complimentary. They know their offense is going to score a lot of points, they don’t have to pitch shutouts. They play aggressive and force turnovers. Teams that don’t respect the Packers defense will pay the price.
15. Baltimore
    The Baltimore defense is continuing to struggle, especially late in games. I’ve been critical of the offense for throwing the ball too much and forcing the defense to play too many minutes. That wasn’t the case last week, and the defense still struggled to contain a rookie quarterback without his number one running back. The offense is carrying this team, and that’s ok because with Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers they have the talent to do it.
16. Houston
    Houston is a good team, with very minor flaws. They can run the ball with Joe Mixon, throw it with Stroud, and they play great defense. But even saying that, it’s hard to know if that makes them a great team, or if the flaws on other teams are just making them seem better. I like this team a lot more when Nico Collins is on the field.
17. Minnesota
    This is the week Minnesota can prove something to me. They are going to have to play a full sixty minutes if they want to beat Detroit. They are coming off their bye, and playing at home. There are no more excuses for this team. Which is a weird thing to say for a 5-0 team.
18. Kansas City
    YES! They did it, they finally did it! The Chiefs are not the best team in the league for at least a week! Much like Buffalo, this team can do everything, it just seems like there are no easy plays or easy yards to be had. Getting a week off hopefully helps the offense tighten some things up so they can show some explosive plays.
19. Detroit
    For a week anyway, Detroit is the best team in the league. The dual threat running game of David Montgomery and Jamyrr Gibbs is lethal. When Jared Goff can throw the ball downfield for big plays this offense is unstoppable. We’ll have to see how much the loss of Hutchinson hurt the defense, but that was never this team’s strength.

By the way, there are a lot of people out there saying the Lions were disrespectful to the Cowboys by running all of those trick plays. Here’s an alternate theory. They were winning – by a lot. They knew they were playing Minnesota this week. Minnesota who was on a bye. Maybe, just maybe, Detroit was trying to put things on film to make it harder for Minnesota to prepare.

MVP Watch

Who are the players making the best case for the MVP award this year?

5. Josh Allen – Naked bootleg to run out the clock. It wasn’t an MVP moment, but it was a clincher on a game they had to win.
6. David Montgomery – running hard, punishing defenders, scoring touchdowns. What else can you expect from an MVP contender.
7. Patrick Mahomes – no longer the best player on the best team. But he’s still likely to end the season that way.
8. TJ Watt – He’s not just about sacks and pressures, punching out the ball on the goal line probably clinched the win last week in Las Vegas.
9. Lamar Jackson – Does Madden Football copy his moves, or does Lamar play Madden and think “I can do that, and I can do it better.”

Weekly Predictions

Next week’s games, who’s going to win and why?

Denver at New Orleans
I was leaning toward New Orleans in this game. Home field advantage is big in a short week, especially when it’s not a division game. But I just heard the report that Carr, Olave, and Shaheed are all out for this game. Rattler looked comfortable running the offense, and Denver will be without their best corner. But that’s just too much missing to trust their offense to take advantage. DEN 17 – NO 13

New England at Jacksonville (England)
Drake Maye looked good in his first start. He made some rookie mistakes that cost the team, but his arm talent is undeniable. I wish this team had better talent around him because we could be talking about him the same way we are talking about Daniels, Williams and Nix. Jacksonville is likely playing for their coach’s job on Sunday. They have more talent than New England, we’ll see if they can match New England’s energy. JAX 22 – NE 20

Seattle at Atlanta
Seattle’s linebackers look lost in pass coverage. That’s going to be a problem going against Atlanta and their passing attack. It’s a lot of targets short and over the middle. If the Seahawks can’t match up, Cousins could have another career day this season. The Atlanta defense has been soft against the run, so if Seattle can rely on Walker and Charbonnet to carry the load they have a chance. ATL 31 SEA 16

Tennessee at Buffalo
Tennessee’s defensive line is going to be able to control Buffalo’s run game. Normally that wouldn’t be a problem for a Josh Allen offense, but this year the passing game has struggled. If newly acquired Cooper can give them a few downfield plays this week, that should open up the offense enough to get out with a win. If not, Will Levis will find a way to help Buffalo get the win. BUF 27 – TEN 17

Cincinnati at Cleveland
Joe Burrow’s kryptonite is . . . Cleveland? Apparently so, the guy has struggled every year to get a win. Historically, this rivalry always produces close games no matter what their records are. But I think this time will be the exception. A lot has been made of Watson playing quarterback – the coach wants to bench him, the players want him benched, I bet Watson wants to be benched at this point. But someone in management is keeping him on the field, and as long as he’s playing quarterback I don’t see them winning another game. CIN 38 – CLE 27

Houston at Green Bay
If Houston can control the ball with the run game, and I mean like 25 carries for Joe Mixon and another 10-15 carries by others, they have a chance to steal one in Green Bay. If they try to get into a shootout, I don’t like their chances. CJ Stroud has been forcing the ball more this year and Green Bay is great at forcing turnovers. I have Green Bay this week, but if this game were being played in Houston I would probably pick them. That’s how close I think these two teams are. GB 34 – HOU 31

Miami at Indianapolis
Is Tua healthy yet? No? Well Indianapolis is going to win then. I hate to be so flippant about it, but it really boils down to that. Even with an extra week to prepare, Miami’s offense just doesn’t have that explosive spark they need to win games. They can run the ball, but against the Colts in Indianapolis, that’s just not going to be enough. IND 24 – MIA 12

Philadelphia at New York Giants
I did not like how Philadelphia came out against Cleveland last week. The offense couldn’t gain yards early and the defense has been suspect all season. You’d think with an extra week off they would come out explosive, kinda like Detroit did. If this is the best the Eagles can offer, I’m not hopeful for their season. Right now it looks like Malik Nabers is going to play in this game. If he does, I like the Giants to win. NYG 26 – PHI 19

Las Vegas at Los Angeles Rams
Both teams are struggling right now and have been decimated with injuries. The Raiders are playing well at the start of games. Whether its a turnover or halftime adjustments, the team seems to not be able to handle adversity on the field well. That’s a direct reflection on the coaching staff. Stafford and McVay are head and shoulders above their counterparts on the Raiders, and that’ll be enough to win. LAR 30 – LV 13

Carolina at Washington
There’s always a chance a young team still learning to win games in this league can have a hangover effect after a big loss. I have a feeling Washington is still haunted by a few plays in their game against the Ravens. They were only a few plays away from winning that game. This is a great rebound game for Jayden Daniels and Washington. Even if they are still thinking about last week, Carolina shouldn’t put up a strong challenge. This will be a closer game than people think, but Washington will still come out on top. WAS 24 – CAR 20

Kansas City at San Francisco
San Francisco has not done well against Mahomes and the Chiefs. Andy Reid has a phenomenal record coming out of a bye, but 49ers had a long week too after their Thursday night game. Both teams are rested and prepared. The Kansas City defense is more physical than San Francisco and I think that will make the difference. Purdy and the offense will stall in the red zone again this week, and will end up kicking field goals instead of touchdowns. That’s going to be the difference in the game. KC 31 – SF 27

New York Jets at Pittsburgh
Russell Wilson might make his first start of the season. Changing time zones magically healed Davante Adams’ hamstring. Excitement for both teams! But the underlying problems are still there. Rodgers is not playing at a high level, and he’s ignoring the strength of the team – their running game. There’s nothing fancy or exotic about the offense Pittsburgh runs. If they execute it perfectly, its passable. When they struggle, it’s tough to watch. I’m going to trust TJ Watt to make a play in what looks like a defensive battle. PIT 23 – NYJ 17

Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Other than the Denver game, Tampa Bay has done well to jump out to early leads this season. Playing with a lead has helped their defense stay aggressive. But Baltimore is a different animal all together. If Tampa Bay tries to play aggressive and blitz, Lamar is going to carve them up. Tampa Bay has been too hot and cold in their games to trust in this one. BAL 34 – TB 27

Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona
Two teams I just can’t figure out. The Chargers are boring on offense, and basic on defense. They have injuries all over, and they still find a way to stay competitive. The Cardinals have talent and explosive potential on offense and defense, but they are inconsistent. I think the key will be whether or not the Chargers can keep Kyler Murray contained. LAC 23 – ARI 17

Game of the week:

Detroit at Minnesota
Are the three best teams in the NFC all in the same division? I think so. This is going to be a great matchup!

This week, Minnesota brought in Cam Akers from the Houston Texans. He was with the team last year and is familiar with the system. Does this mean the injury to Aaron Jones is more serious than we’ve been led to believe? In their game against the Jets in England, the offense struggled once Jones left the game. I’m nervous about Sam Darnold’s production in the last couple of games. He’s started to show a few of the bad habits that got him booted from the Jets and Panthers.

That said, the Detroit defense isn’t strong, and without Hutchinson, they are going to struggle to get pressure on Darnold. The Minnesota offense is going to be just fine in this game.

Detroit has the best balanced attack in the NFL. Being able to mix up the power run of Montgomery and the speed of Gibbs wears down opponents over the course of a full game. Goff gets wide open receivers because the linebackers have to respect the run and play closer to the line. Safeties play off coverage trying to protect against the big play, which opens up the middle of the field for St. Brown and Williams.

What they did to Dallas should put every team in the league on notice. Minnesota hasn’t put together a full game since week three. No lead is safe against Detroit, so a fast start will not be enough for Minnesota this week.

So how do I see this game going?

The Minnesota defense employed a five man front for much of the second half against the 49ers. It shut down their run game and put Purdy under constant pressure. I see them doing something similar this week. The Vikings will be aggressive on defense, selling out to stop the run and forcing Goff to throw.

The Detroit defense would like to get pressure on Darnold and try to get him rattled. There are turnovers to be had when Darnold is forcing the ball into tight windows. But are they going to blitz more in order to do that? It’s a tough decision to make when Justin Jefferson is running free in your secondary.

This is a bad matchup for Detroit. They are probably the better team, and I fully expect them to win when they play again in Detroit. But this week, Minnesota finds a way to put together a full game and win a shootout. MIN 41 – DET 34

Week seven is looking like a stacked roster of amazing games. Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!