Well here we are, eight weeks into the season. We’re not quite at the halfway point, but it feels like its the right time to start doing some mid season reviews. I set out to review the whole NFL in one column, but that ended up being too much. So I’m going to break this in half and tackle the AFC this week, and we’ll get into the NFC next week.

For the past few seasons the AFC has been thought of as the tougher conference. They have the better quarterbacks. They have more Super Bowls. Better coaching staffs. But I think that’s changing. Stars are getting older. Rosters are suffering under the weight of bloated contracts. In the race to compete with the likes of Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow and Allen, teams have sacrificed their futures chasing pricey free agents or missing in the draft by reaching for players that don’t have the talent or resume to be starters in the NFL. The power at the top of the AFC is still very good, but the rest of the teams have flaws and they are showing up this year.

Let’s break it down:

Playoff Picture

At the beginning of the season, I had Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore, and Houston as the division winners. For my wild card picks I went with Cincinnati, Cleveland and Jacksonville.

Today, Kansas City, Houston, Pittsburgh and Buffalo are the division leaders. Denver, Baltimore and LA Chargers are the wild card teams.

I still feel good about my division winners. Buffalo has almost clinched the East already and Kansas City is clearly the best team out west. Houston might get a challenge from Indianapolis now that they have moved on from Richardson. Baltimore’s defense worries me, but I think they are still the best in the North.

As for my wild card teams, I’m definitely worried about those picks. Jacksonville is done, and even though Cleveland is going to start winning some games with Winston at quarterback, they just dug themselves too big of a hole. Cincinnati still has a chance, and I think they are playing better than their record, they just faced the tough part of their schedule first.

So my updated playoff picture looks like this:

Kansas City (1 seed)
Buffalo (2 seed)
Baltimore (3 seed)
Houston (4 seed)
Pittsburgh (5 seed)
Indianapolis (6 seed)
Cincinnati (7 seed)

Why am I leaving off Denver and the LA Chargers? These are two teams still in transition. Denver has been playing well, but against lesser teams. Bo Nix is a rookie, and they tend to hit a wall around week 12. I could see them struggle down the stretch with a very tough schedule left to play. The Chargers only have one way to win games and that’s with a ball control offense and a strong defense. They don’t have explosive players on offense, and the defense is filled with injury prone aging veterans. Not a good combination when trying to win games down the stretch. Their schedule is a little easier than Denver’s but still rough enough to keep them just on the outside looking in for this year’s playoffs.

Biggest Surprise
How quickly Bo Nix has developed as a quarterback. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels came into the season as the headliners, but Bo Nix has already surpassed both of them as a pocket passer. He’s reading defenses well, and already looks comfortable in Sean Payton’s system. This is a learning year for Nix before he starts a run of playoff appearances.

Biggest Disappointment
I have a few here. The Raiders season is certainly up there. Jacksonville not performing up to their talent is a big one. Cleveland. But the biggest disappointment I have for the season so far is the Miami Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa. The injury history with this young man is getting extremely serious. I understand that he wants to keep playing, and that the team desperately needs him in order to win. But sometimes long term health has to come first. I’m not a doctor, and I don’t know what his medical team is telling him. What I do know, is that too many players after they retire have talked about how they wish they knew then what they know now – and they would have retired before the injuries ruined their life.

Best Overachiever
Derrick Henry. Yes the man is a beast, and he has been his whole career. But this was supposed to be his swan song. Ride the coattails of the Baltimore machine and make one last push for a Super Bowl ring. Not be the leading rusher. Not be the most dominant force right now in the AFC. And especially not be doing this at his age! It’s amazing to watch, and we’re lucky to get to see it.

Worst Underachiever
I guess for a lot of people this might be the Jets or Aaron Rodgers specifically. But I didn’t have huge expectations for them this year (8-9 missing the playoffs).

I think Anthony Richardson fits this bill. He is so gifted athletically that it’s easy to overlook his deficiencies throwing the football. His completion percentage is horrific. It’s not his receivers or the defense that are causing those passes to hit the ground. It’s his accuracy, his velocity, his timing, and his inability to read the defense. He throws a beautiful deep ball, and he’s a physical runner, but he’s not a quarterback. Pulling himself from a game because he was “tired” is not the standard for leadership in the NFL.

I thought after his brief stint last year that he showed a lot of promise. There was hope that the extra time off would be good for him to work on his footwork and throwing motion. Obviously, whatever work was done in the offseason hasn’t fixed the issues on the field. I’m hoping he can come out of this and find his way back on the field. But right now, I think he would have been cut if not for his draft position and his ability to run the football.

Division Grades

AFC East – Buffalo is the only relevant team in this division. New England looks like they have a good young quarterback talent and should be competitive in 2026 after they fix their offensive line and find some playmakers on offense. The Jets are mired in Aaron Rodgers drama that probably set the franchise back another five years. Miami is one hit on Tua away from having to tear it all down and start a rebuild. Grade C-

AFC North – The records might not show it right now, but this is still the toughest division in the AFC. Baltimore’s offense is more dynamic than ever, but the defense might be the worst they’ve had in two decades. Pittsburgh continues to put out a strong run game and a dominant defense, but this year they added strong quarterback play. Cincinnati has struggled all season to play a complete game. They’ve shown a good offense, and a good defense, but never in the same game. Cleveland suffered through Deshaun Watson’s play early, but they have new life with Jameis Winston. The Browns still have Denver and the Chargers on their schedule. Imagine that they actually still control their destiny for a playoff spot. Grade B+

AFC West – Denver is building a winner. The Chargers are trying to change their culture, then get the right personnel in the door. Both of these teams look to be able to challenge the Chiefs over the next three to four seasons. The Raiders are still searching for an identity and a quarterback that can lead them. The Chiefs have morphed into an AFC North team with a strong running game, dominant offensive line, and a physical defense. Mahomes has more interceptions than touchdowns so far this season and the team is 7-0 with wins against some of the best teams in both conferences. Grade A-

AFC South – A division that I thought had a lot of promise is disappointing so far. Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, CJ Stroud looked like an incredible group of young talented quarterbacks that could step up and challenge the old vets at the top of the conference. CJ Stroud now looks like the only one who has a chance to be a long term starter. This is a division in turmoil, with Jacksonville looking for a new coach, and Tennessee and Indianapolis looking for a new quarterback this offseason. Grade C

Power Rankings

Who is playing the best football right now? Last Week’s rank in parenthesis ()

10. Minnesota (4)
    Two tough losses in a row have the Vikings reeling. All of the things that made them successful early in the season are still there, so righting the ship shouldn’t be difficult. But losing streaks are hard to break, so this is a big week in Minnesota.
11. Philadelphia (10)
    Jalen Hurts finally started to put things together last week. He’s a more dangerous player when he puts pressure on the defense by running in open space. Last season’s version of the Eagles felt like they were slipping a little bit every week. This version feels like they are improving a little bit every week. There’s room for optimism in Philly.
12. Baltimore (3)
    The late game defensive struggles showed up again last week in Cleveland. Lamar Jackson looked like he was having an off day – his throws just weren’t as accurate as they had been in weeks past. Still, with all the issues the game still came down to the wire. There’s always a few bumps and bruises through the season, but the Ravens absolutely have to fix this defense.
13. Pittsburgh (9)
    The Steelers having a balanced offense should scare the rest of the league. But Russell Wilson falling in love with throwing the ball should scare the Pittsburgh coaching staff. Keeping Wilson aggressive but constrained is a tricky balance, but it’s one they are going to have to find.
14. Washington (8)
    Don’t assume this team is all about Jayden Daniels. There’s a good defense here, a punishing run game, an offensive line that pushes people around, and a receiving group that has big play potential.
15. Green Bay (5)
    Is Jordan Love going to be nursing injuries the rest of the way? Lower body injuries are hard to shake off and continuing to play with them generally makes it more likely to get another injury while overcompensating. The run game and defense can keep the score close, but they need Jordan Love for the stretch run to the playoffs.
16. Houston (6)
    With the injuries they are facing, the Texans are probably ranked too high right now. But this is a resilient team that has overcome the injuries so far. Even if they stumble here, they still have a lot of division games on the schedule when they should be healthy. I’m not worried about this team right now.
17. Buffalo (7)
    Big win in the Pacific Northwest. Josh Allen hadn’t played that well on the road this year, so getting a win in Seattle was a great sign for the rest of the season. With no real competition in the division, now is a great time to work on integrating Amari Cooper into the offense.
18. Kansas City (2)
    Winning is a habit. This team is addicted to it. The games aren’t pretty, there aren’t easy yards on offense. But when it counts, this team makes the plays they have to in order to win.
19. Detroit (1)
    Well we knew they had a powerful offense. We knew the defense was good enough. Now they’ve added explosive special teams to their resume. Good luck NFL.

MVP Watch

Who are the players making the best case for the MVP award this year?

5. Patrick Mahomes – sometimes stats put you in position to win awards, sometimes winning is the only stat that matters.
6. Josh Allen – threw his first interception of the year, and all of a sudden he started playing like an MVP again.
7. TJ Watt – getting a sack is nice – getting a strip/sack/fumble recovery to ice the game is how you win MVP awards.
8. Lamar Jackson – just a little stumble in Cleveland, but the dual threat still makes him the most dangerous player in the NFL.
9. Jared Goff – 55 net passing yards, 52 points? This is one of those Quarterback of the best team things isn’t it? Yes, yes it is.

Weekly Predictions

Next week’s games, who’s going to win and why?

Houston at New York Jets
A short week is probably good for the Jets. After that loss, they will want to get on the playing field as soon as possible. Houston is down another star receiver in this game. Don’t expect a lot of offense on Thursday night. I’m looking at best QB/Coach/Running Game/Defense and all four point to Houston. HOU 17 – NYJ 13

Dallas at Atlanta
The Cowboys are losing these games at the line of scrimmage. They can’t run the ball, and they can’t stop the run. Their best chance at winning this game is if Kirk Cousins throws the ball 40 times – which is very possible. But if Atlanta can commit to the run game and play an efficient, ball control offense, they should have no problem winning this game at home. ATL 27 – DAL 24

Miami at Buffalo
It was great seeing Tua back on the field, and even better seeing him walk off the field unharmed. I keep thinking about a deep throw he had to Tyreek in the game against the Cardinals that was severely underthrown. He never had a big arm to begin with, but that seemed weak even for him. Hopefully it was a bit of rust and he’ll shake that off over the next couple of weeks. But Buffalo owns Miami, and this game isn’t going to be any different. BUF 31 – MIA 17

Las Vegas at Cincinnati
The Raiders are going to say all the right things publicly, but make no mistake, they are in tank mode now for the rest of the season. That said, Cincinnati better work hard to win at the line of scrimmage or else this game could go sideways for them quickly. CIN 30 – LV 22

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland
Jameis Winston gave this team life last week. He is a very inconsistent quarterback who is just as likely to throw a pick six as he is a forty yard touchdown. But the system in Cleveland has worked well the past couple of years for backup quarterbacks and I think Winston is going to do well the rest of the season. This game is going to show how much the Chargers are missing dynamic athletes on the offense. CLE 27 – LAC 17

New England at Tennessee
Tennessee got embarrassed and New England won their Super Bowl for the year. I expect the Titans to come out very physical and very determined to get a win this week. Outside of the Detroit game they have played some of the top teams very close all season. This is the game they need right now to gain back a little confidence. TEN 24 – NE 16

Washington at New York Giants
Rematch from earlier this season, the Giants probably should have won the first game if not for an injured kicker. These teams have gone in opposite directions since then. Washington might have a letdown after the crazy finish last week, but they should have enough talent to get by the Giants this week. WAS 19 – NYG 13

New Orleans at Carolina
The Saints are finally getting healthy and that includes the possibility of getting Carr back for this game. Carolina is looking to sell whatever parts still have any value. These aren’t very good teams right now, but the Saints probably have a little more healthy talent and that should get them through a close game. NO 26 – CAR 21

Denver at Baltimore
The Broncos have had a very favorable schedule so far. That stops this week. Not only are they getting one of the best teams in the league, but they are facing them after an embarrassing loss to the Browns. Not the best time to travel cross country for a game. BAL 38 – DEN 20

Jacksonville at Philadelphia
This is the type of game the Eagles find a way to lose. There’s no rational reason why, but they just always have these brain-fart type of games where they just make too many mistakes and don’t take the competition seriously. I’m picking the Eagles because they SHOULD win, but I won’t be surprised at all to see the Jaguars squeak one out this week. PHI 27 – JAX 24

Detroit at Green Bay
I’m sure the Packers and their fans are wishing this game was thirty days from now. A nice cold, snowy afternoon for the visiting Lions with the division title on the line. Instead, the Lions are going to get fairly decent weather and face an ailing Jordan Love. Green Bay’s defense and Josh Jacobs should help keep this game close, but Detroit just has too much firepower on offense. DET 31 – GB 27

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle
The Rams are getting healthy and that should scare the rest of the NFC West. The division is wide open now, but the best quarterback belongs in LA. Seattle is reeling, the defense can’t figure out the new system and apparently they are fighting each other as much as they are fighting the other team. The Rams got a very good win last week and a mini-bye from the Thursday night game. I expect them to come in healthy, rested and prepared for a late season run. LAR 31 – SEA 20

Indianapolis at Minnesota
The Colts coaching staff did exactly what they had to do by benching Anthony Richardson. It’s one thing to be an athletic player, but as a quarterback you have to complete at least sixty percent of your passes and he’s not even over fifty percent. This is a get right game for Minnesota. The Colts are a good team and the offense is much better with Flacco running it, but overall they don’t play as well on the road as they do at home. Get the defense back on track Coach Flores and things will be just fine the rest of the season. MIN 34 – IND 23

Tampa Bay at Kansas City
Tampa’s offense looked just fine even without their top two wide receivers last week. But they are stepping up in class this week and playing on the road to boot. Baker and the boys are going to play well in the first half, but Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones will take over in the second half and secure a big win. KC 34 – TB 21

Game of the week:

Chicago at Arizona
D’Andre Swift has been the most important offensive player for the Bears the past couple of weeks. He sparked the comeback against Washington last week had they finished that game, we might be looking at this team differently right now. The Bears have looked good against lesser teams, but they still have struggled on offense. Can the Bears defense carry them again in Arizona this week?

Kyler Murray seems to have built up his chemistry with Marvin Harrison Jr and the rest of his pass catchers. Last week they struggled to get the run game going against the Dolphins, but they’ll need the balance on offense against the Bears. The Cardinals defense has been quietly improving this year. If they can get some pass rush help this might be a sneaky good team.

The Bears defense has struggled stopping the power run up the middle this season. That opens up the chances for Connor to have a big game. Offensively, the Bears need a big game from Caleb Williams. But if he continues to hold the ball in the pocket and not get his passes out on time, this Arizona defense will find ways to create turnovers and negative plays. ARI 30 – CHI 16

Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!