And we’re back! 11-3 so far this week with the picks, giving me a 88-48 overall record for the season – with a chance for a dozen wins if Kansas City comes through tonight.
This week’s Hits and Misses is going to be a little different.
I looked over the three losses I had in my picks – HOU/NYJ, NO/CAR, and LAC/CLE. I haven’t watched the film yet on these games, but I caught enough of all these games to come away with a couple of thoughts. I’m not going to list my Hits and Misses today. Looking at these three games, I realized something about my process and I need to get it out there. So this week is more about inner reflection, I hope you get something out of it, but if you decide to skip it this week, I understand.
Anyway, here we go.
Carolina has been improving, New Orleans has been declining. I know that. I saw it on film. I looked at New Orleans and saw a team that was getting healthier, so obviously they must be better than Carolina. I ignored the warning signs that the Saints were too injured, too inconsistent to be counted on. Derek Carr was supposed to provide better leadership from the quarterback position, but that’s not what the team needed. They have leadership, they have veterans. They needed someone who can do the job, and Carr has struggled his entire career to elevate the players around him. Carolina has gone through their struggles this year. But even with the problems they’ve faced, the poor decisions they’ve made, the team has forged together. This is a very different team from the one that got blown out by the Saints in week one. There’s something to be said for team chemistry. The Panthers look like they are gelling, the Saints look like they are breaking apart.
In Cleveland, I saw the quarterback change as a huge improvement for the offense. It rejuvenated the team against Baltimore. They looked like the team I expected to see this season. The Chargers on the other hand have been boring all season. Plodding up and down the field, struggling to make splash plays but still finding ways to win games. I said it multiple times, the Chargers didn’t have an explosive offense. They didn’t have any sizzle. But I overlooked the fact that they had been playing winning football. Cleveland had the sizzle, and I fell for it.
Houston is the biggest mistake that I made last week. CJ Stroud had been struggling, but he was still finding ways to win games. Joe Mixon was getting great yards running the ball, playing physical at the line of scrimmage. He was getting yards that the other Houston running backs couldn’t get. I looked down on those running backs as not being as talented as Mixon. But I missed the point. I saw a team that was dominating in the run game, controlling the line of scrimmage. And I credited the offensive line. I touted that line for weeks, even though the evidence in front of me showed that it wasn’t good. In my head I had convinced myself that the Houston line was great, and each time I saw a great run it confirmed it. When CJ Stroud was under pressure, the line was never something I considered.
In all three instances, I let myself fall into the trap of watching video to see what I wanted to see. The video was showing me all of this – the good and the bad. But my preconceived notions of each team blinded me to it. I’m a Raiders fan. There are some players and coaches in the league that I’m a great fan of. I try very hard to not let those feelings seep into any analysis I do. Or, if I know it’s going to be a problem, I admit it up front – it’s hard for me to be fair dealing with the Raiders and probably the rest of the AFC West.
It was hard watching the Jets defense, which had been playing uninspired for the past few weeks, decimate the Houston offensive line. I still believed, right up to the end, that Houston would still find a way to win. But it wasn’t their night.
So, here’s what I learned from this weekend of football.
- Don’t overlook the details
- Matchups matter – not just teams, but position groups and one on ones
- Big plays aren’t as important as winning plays
- Culture, teamwork, and motivation at this level means just as much as talent
It’s not easy looking internally and finding fault in our thinking. But I feel better having done it – and I’m excited to watch film again with fresh eyes and without the biases I’ve accumulated so far. I urge everyone to take a moment and do the same.