Upset weekend? Super Bowl favorites Baltimore, San Francisco, and Detroit all lost. Playoff hopefuls Dallas, Philadelphia, Miami and the LA Rams all lost. Who had Minnesota, Seattle, New Orleans and Washington as your NFC division leaders? It’s still early, but there are definitely some trends starting to show up. We’ll get into a few of them.
But first, a general observation.
Why does it seem like so many teams are struggling on offense? Why do teams like New Orleans and Buffalo make moving the ball so effortless while most of the league is struggling to convert third downs? With all of the rule changes that have favored offenses for the past few years, have the defenses finally caught back up? For now, the film seems to be saying, YES!
One thing that is noticeable is that coaches this season are much more conservative with their play calls. Field goal attempts are up. Coaches are more willing to “take the points” than to try and convert 4th down and sustain the drive. The other thing that goes hand in hand with that is the lack of quality quarterback play across the league. We are seeing offenses that are built on quarterbacks using a one read and run philosophy. The running game is gaining more prominence. Its making games a little faster this year and resulting in less scoring.
But when you look at teams with solid veteran quarterbacks, the offense feels like it is coming easier. There’s more room for wide receivers to get open. The timing is better, the throws are accurate, the players are getting yards without being touched. And more importantly, the teams that are getting the easy yards – the chunk plays – are the teams that are winning.
Defenses are catching up. But the rules still favor the offenses. If you are in the predicting business, start looking at the teams that can score and have veteran quarterback leadership.
Now on to the games . . .
BUF @ MIA
This was a rough game. Tua, all hopes for a speedy recovery. That said, he was not having a good game before the injury. I’m not sure what kind of game plan that was, but the strength of this Dolphin offense is speed, not power. Trying to force a power run offense just seemed to throw off the entire passing attack all night. Buffalo played a very good game, both offense and defense. James Cook looks like he’s emerging as the second star Josh Allen can rely on week to week. Miami is going to have to really assess what their goals are this year. Hopefully, they can win without Tua, and he can heal and not feel the pressure to come back before he’s ready.
NO @ DAL
Derek Carr and Klint Kubiak are dialing up an offense that should scare the rest of the league right now. What impresses me the most is how easy they are making it look. The offensive line is keeping a clean pocket for Carr which he absolutely has to have. His troubles with pressure are well documented. They are creating huge holes in the running game too, and Kamara looks fast and shifty again.
Knowing what they did before rewatching the film, I tried to figure out how they handled Dallas superstar edge Micah Parsons. Really I wanted to know how Carr had such a clean pocket when one of the premier rushers was on the other side of the field.
It was shocking to me. He started on the left side of the defense in the 1st quarter. The Saints ran away from him, attacking the right side of the defense. They didn’t even bother blocking him on most of those run plays. On passing plays they mostly took him on one on one and held him in check. I didn’t see much help from backs or tight ends staying in to block. He still couldn’t break down the pocket. In the second and third quarter he switched and played mostly on the right side of the defense. New Orleans continued to run that direction, but now they simply double teamed him and mauled him. He was a non factor throughout the game.
The Dallas offense was in trouble early when they started kicking field goals instead of pushing to get touchdowns. With the lead growing, New Orleans stopped blitzing and used their front four to get pressure and dropped everyone else into coverage. Dak struggled to find open receivers and turned the ball over trying to force passes into coverage. It was a simply strategy, but when it’s done this well its hard to beat.
New Orleans gets the struggling Philadelphia defense next week. Is another 40 point explosion on the way?
TB @ DET
I had this billed as the Game of the Week and it certainly delivered. It was obvious on the rewatch that both of these teams are playing a higher level of football than most of the league right now.
Tampa looks like a serious playoff contender this year. The running game is still a problem, but they use screens and dump off passes to the running backs to make up for it. We saw in the fourth quarter how this could be a problem for them as they weren’t able to sustain a drive and drain the clock. So that’s where Baker and the Buccaneers are going to need to improve. It was great to see Godwin step up and be the man when Mike Evans was drawing all of the attention from the defense.
As good as Aiden Hutchinson was, Jared Goff as bad in this game. Too many turnovers, too many overthrows. He looked like he was deciding who he was throwing to pre-snap and then throwing into coverage even when there were open receivers. This was the biggest criticism of his game when he played for the Rams. He has to get better at taking what the defense is giving and not forcing the ball. And seriously does anyone have bigger stones that Dan Campbell? Calling that fake punt – I guess it’s only crazy if it doesn’t work.
IND @ GB
You know the cliche, you can’t win/lose the game in the first quarter? Well this game is the exception.
What was the Indianapolis defensive coaching staff thinking? Malik Willis is not a throwing quarterback. He’s only been with the Packers for three weeks. He doesn’t know the offense. Everyone, and I mean everyone knew they weren’t going to be throwing the ball downfield.
So why were they playing two deep with their safeties throughout the first quarter while Josh Jacobs and Willis absolutely tore up the field on the ground? They built up a 10-0 lead before Indy changed up their alignment but it was too late.
Richardson couldn’t get the offense moving all day. Green Bay’s defense really stepped up and made every play difficult for the Colts. Richardson still isn’t very accurate so his receivers can’t afford to be dropping passes too. Taylor got a few nice runs in, but it wasn’t enough. We’ll just have to get used to this Colts team being inconsistent week to week.
Green Bay, on the other hand, will stay competitive if their running game and defense continue to play like they did on Sunday. I imagine future opponents won’t make the same mistake and will force Willis to beat them throwing the football. But even if they can play .500 ball until Jordan Love comes back I’d consider that a win for their season.
NYJ @ TEN
This was an ugly game. But ugly is how both of these teams want to play. Rough and rugged on both sides of the ball.
Tennessee fans, chin up. I think this team is closer to winning than many think. Will Levis is making some dumb mistakes out there. But he’s making those mistakes while trying to do great things. He’s not lost out there, he’s finding his targets and making quality throws down the field. I mean the TD pass to Ridley was amazing. What is driving everyone crazy are the attempts to make something happen rather than take a sack. He’s going to learn the importance of protecting the ball in those situations. He might still through interceptions down the field, but you can live with that as long as he’s also making big plays downfield too. He’s got that gunslinger in him and it’s going to take a little patience from this coaching staff and the fans, but he has a chance to be good.
On the other side, there was Aaron Rodgers. His game is precision. But we didn’t see much of that Sunday. He still throws a very catchable ball, but the velocity isn’t what it once was. For most of the first half the wide receivers for the Jets were invisible. Everything went through Breece Hall. But if I was a Jets fan I’d be more worried about the defense. Tennessee was able to hit some big plays and get big chunks through the ground game. It was very similar to how they played against San Francisco.
SF @ MIN
For those who only saw the highlights of the 97 yard touchdown pass let me tell you, Minnesota was the better team in this game from start to finish. This was not a fluky win, they beat the 49ers soundly in this game.
Fred Warner made two plays for San Francisco that were critical. The first was in the second quarter while they were trailing 10-0. The Vikings were driving into the red zone when he dropped into deep coverage and got an interception. Had that ball made it to the receiver, he very well could have broken through for a touchdown. Rather than being down 17-0, the turnover stopped the drive and turned into seven points for San Francisco. Then later in the game, Minnesota up 20-7 was driving and Warner managed to punch the ball out of Aaron Jones’ hands at the goal line and they recovered it on the one. The final score was 23-17, but had these two plays gone the other way it would have been an absolute blow out. Most talk about defensive player of the year center around pass rushers, but this is the type of performance that needs more attention.
The Vikings defense deserves a lot of credit too. Before that 97 yard touchdown, they managed to hold the 49ers offense on 4th and Goal. But it was a small change in the third quarter that really stifled the 49er offense. Coming out of halftime, the Vikings switched up and started using a five man front. They swamped the 49er offensive line and forced Purdy into a series of errors. During a quick span in the third quarter they managed a couple tackles for loss, a couple sacks, and a couple interceptions. Very uncharacteristic for this 49er offense. But even though Mason has done a good job filling in for Christian McCaffrey, defenses don’t fear him the same way.
The Vikings might have created the blueprint on how to slow down this 49er team. The next three games (LAR, NE, ARI) would normally seem very winnable, but without Deebo and CMC and with Purdy struggling this might be a rough stretch.
SEA @ NE
This game has my vote as the most physical of the week. These two teams were literally slamming into each other on every play. As I watched it kept hitting me how similar these teams are to each other. Physical nasty front lines, veteran quarterback, tough as nails running backs, and a defense that gang tackles. The biggest difference was the talent on the outside and that’s why Seattle was able to win this game.
Brissett relied heavily on Hunter Henry though the first half. Once Seattle adjusted the defense and he had to throw to his outside receivers, the Patriots struggled to move the ball consistently. I think more than anything this game proved the Cincinnati win was no fluke. This is a physical team that is going to surprise a few more teams this season.
Seattle really missed Walker III in this game. They needed his game breaking ability to balance out their passing attack. DK Metcalf had the big play of the game, but I think he would have had a few more big plays if the Patriots had to respect the running game. Playing against challenged offenses like Denver and New England might be hiding some weaknesses in this defense. We won’t know how good these guys are until they meet Detroit in Week 4. Next week they have Miami without Tua.
NYG @ WAS
Last week I was hyper critical of Daniel Jones. This week I’m going to be hyper critical of the coaching staff.
Jones, Nabors, and Singletary showed up on Sunday. I’m not sold on Jones as a starting quarterback, but he played well enough to show the potential of this offense. If they can get mistake free play from the quarterback position, this offense has the talent to put up yardage and points.
But the coaching staff lost this game for the Giants. Injuries happen. Even injuries to kickers. But how can you go an entire offseason without preparing someone to be an emergency backup if and when the need arises? This just shows how out of their depth this staff is. People have defended Daboll as a good coach, and I have trusted those people. But no more. It’s obvious now that this coaching staff is not up to the task. In a game they lost by three points – they whiffed on 3 extra points and a fourth quarter field goal because they didn’t have anyone that could attempt the kicks. And every time they failed to convert, you could see how it was affecting the players. It absolutely cost them the game.
Daniels continued playing recklessly early in the game. But after he took a shot to the ribs and had to sit out for one play, it looked like something clicked for him. He spent more time throwing from the pocket and less time scrambling around. Washington’s offense will depend on how quickly Daniels can get comfortable making plays with his arm rather than his legs.
LAC @ CAR
I had planned to do a breakdown on why the Panthers need to sit Bryce Young down. But news coming out Monday said they were planning to do just that. Here’s a piece of it anyway:
Young was a flawed prospect coming out. There was some doubt about who should go number one and the brain trust that chose Young is no longer there to develop him. His short stature makes it tough to see the defense and complete passes over the middle. He’s very accurate on underneath routes and in the flats, but can’t drive the ball downfield with much success. Comparing him to Kyler Murray, another short quarterback, and you can see the lack of athleticism to get outside the pocket. But you can also see the lack of confidence and that might be the biggest reason to sit him down for a few games. He needs to get his head right and he can’t do that under fire.
The Chargers took advantage of a struggling team. But what I was most impressed with was their offensive line. The running backs were getting three, four yards downfield before being touched. It makes it so much easier to run that ball control/run heavy offense when you have production like that.
The question is going to be, what happens when the Chargers have to play from behind?
CLE @ JAX
This game was a perfect example of two teams that are making offense harder than it should be.
Cleveland came out with much better energy than Week 1 and Watson was certainly more accurate. But that accuracy wasn’t enough because his receivers dropped passes left and right. The running back by committee didn’t help either. As soon as it looked like one running back was getting a feel for the game he was replaced and the process started over again. But the big killer for the offense was all of the penalties, especially late in the game. Even with a good defense, and the defense definitely played better this week, this offense needs to improve all around if Cleveland expects to compete for a playoff spot.
I don’t know why I’m so fixated on the offensive problems for Jacksonville. I just know with the talent they have, they should be better. To be clear, I think the defense is doing well this year. They need to force turnovers, but for the most part they played well enough to win both games this year.
The problem fits squarely on this offense. Here’s the quick breakdown as I see it: Lawrence is holding the ball too long. When he has time, he’s accurate, but the ball comes out slowly and the receivers aren’t getting open for him. The offensive line is horribly inconsistent especially up the middle. The running game, led by Etienne Jr works best when they slash straight upfield. When they dance, when they try to jump to the outside they almost always get swallowed up by the defense.
The coaching staff needs to take a hard look at their play schemes. Get quick developing pass plays and coach up the running backs to take what’s there and stop trying to turn every run into a big play. Get back to basics and maybe they can find some consistency. Until then, this team is going to continue struggling to put up points.
LV @ BAL
I said it in the Gridiron Voice Podcast, Raider Nation expected to be 1-1 after week 2 and these Raiders chose to do it the hard way.
So how did they do it?
The Spillane interception in the third quarter was the turning point in the game. It was 16-6 and the Ravens looked like they were ready to break the game open on that drive. From that moment, the Raiders had four straight scoring drives and it was enough to win.
On top of that, I charted the runs for Derrick Henry. Baltimore handed off to Henry on first down on 14 of his 18 carries. There was no creativity behind it, or deception. He got most of his carries in the second half, but only one carry after his score. Again, Baltimore ignored their identity and tried to pass the ball to end the game instead of running out the clock behind their big free agent. Momentum swung to the Raiders and they took advantage scoring 13 unanswered points in the final 9 minutes of the game.
If the Raiders offense can continue to feed Davante and Bowers the way they did on Sunday, this could be a tough team going forward.
LAR @ ARI
That is what a 1st round receiver is supposed to look like! Watch out for these Cardinals, because if they can get explosive plays from Harrison, Jr and power plays from Connor on the ground, this offense is going to be tough for anyone to stop. The Rams were simply outmanned in this game and it was over in the first quarter. They are going to have to rely on guts and execution until they get healthy again. Hopefully their season isn’t over before that happens. BTW, I don’t know what Arizona still needs to do before I become a believer, but I know they are close.
PIT @ DEN
I like what Sean Payton is doing with Bo Nix. It might not result in early success, but he’s teaching this young man how to play quarterback. The playbook is open for him, and the expectation is for Nix to make every throw. Quarterbacking is hard, but Nix is learning with every throw. It might take half the season, but he’s so much further along in his development than either Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels. Be patient Broncos fans. This isn’t your year, but the seeds of success are being planted right now.
Pittsburgh physically dominated this game, but the score never reflected it. Too many penalties calling back big plays on both the offense and defense. Fields is still a dual threat but you can tell he’s trying to prove he can be a pocket passer in this offense. At times the ball comes out a little wobbly and I think he’s just trying to muscle the ball down the field with his arm instead of setting his feet and driving the ball with his hips.
Mike Tomlin is going to have a tough decision to make when Russell Wilson gets healthy. Wilson may be more talented and accomplished, but Fields looks like he belongs in a Steelers jersey.
CIN @ KC
Big plays, controversy, last second field goal? Yep it’s definitely a Bengals/Chiefs game.
Yes, I think the pass interference was a bad call. Letter of the law, it was probably pass interference, but in what other game does the official call that foul – at that moment, at that part of the field? I saw at least three instances of contact that was more egregious than that one in other games this week where the official left it as a no-call. If the league doesn’t like hearing that the officials favor the Chiefs, then maybe they should do some more work on making these types of calls consistent across all the games.
Anyway, back to the actual game.
Cincinnati certainly showed up in Week 2. Where was this team last week? I’d still be in my survivor pool. The Bengals are going to need to figure out their run game. They got a few good runs on Sunday, but it wasn’t consistent enough. I think they are going to continue to miss Joe Mixon as the season goes on. Burrow leaned heavily on his tight ends throughout the game. I think he might have exposed the Chiefs defense here, they are strong in the secondary but the middle of the field looked wide open most of the day.
This is another game where there were too many field goals. If you want to beat Mahomes in Arrowhead, you gotta get touchdowns.
The Chiefs offense was dominated by the play of Isiah Pacheco. That is going to be a big loss for them going forward. This team has transitioned away from a pass first attack. Until they find a consistent replacement for Pacheco, this team is going to be relying even more on the arm of Mahomes.
CHI @ HOU
This had the feel of a physical game while watching it live. But really it was a very sloppy game. Too many penalties, too much jawing and pushing after the plays. But more importantly, too many hits on Caleb Williams. Tennessee and Houston have both shown that Williams is not ready to handle the blitz yet. He’s taking a lot of hits and he’s going to keep getting blitzed until he proves he can beat it. CJ Stroud had a hard time connecting with Tank Dell throughout the game. If they had hit on a couple of those near misses, I don’t think this game would have been this close in the 4th quarter. It’s an ugly win for Houston, but it still counts.
ATL @ PHI
By the mid third quarter of this game, I wasn’t even sure what I was going to write about. It was a 9-7 score but it felt like the score should have been 21-17 or something like that. There were enough big plays on each side that the score just didn’t match. The fourth quarter provided the excitement though.
Philadelphia’s nine minute slog of a drive to take the lead felt like a dagger. When they stopped Robinson on 4th and 1 it should have been game over. Atlanta showed a lot of resilience to come back and win this thing. Philly is going to have a lot of questions to answer, but the big one is going to be on the defense. Allowing the Falcons to drive the length of the field in under two minutes without any timeouts defies logic.
Fangio’s defense philosophy is to rush four and play coverage. He rarely blitzes to create pressure. That was evident all game, but it became a glaring problem on the final drive. Cousins is an immobile quarterback. He was not going to escape the pocket or beat the blitz with his legs. There should have been pressure on him on every throw. But beyond that, the scheme needs to fit the personnel. Philadelphia has a lot of youth in the secondary. Relying on them to be the strength of the defense is a mistake. They need a pass rush to speed up the play. Green Bay carved up this defense in Week 1, Atlanta exploited in last night, what is New Orleans going to do to it in Week 3?
Well that’s it for now. Just remember, we’re only two weeks in. No one’s qualified for the playoffs yet and no one’s been eliminated. But we are starting to see the trends on who has a solid team and who still has question marks.