Here we go!
We’ve finally made it to the start of the 2024 NFL season. There’s a lot to cover before the kickoff in Kansas City on Thursday so let’s get started. This will be a weekly column on Gridiron Voice with several topics rolled up into one long-form article. I’m sure as the season goes on the structure of this column will adapt as we figure out what works and what doesn’t. Anyway, for this week, I’ll be setting out the initial sections I want to cover with a little explanation of what to expect throughout the season.
Stories I’m Following
All season long I’m going to be keeping tabs on some of the most interesting stories in the NFL.
Going into a Week 1, I think the biggest story I’ll be following is the rookie quarterback class. All throughout the preseason it looked like the rookies were the best quarterbacks on their teams. JJ McCarthy got hurt unfortunately so he’s out for this year. But Caleb, Jayden, and Bo are going to be the starters. Drake, Michael, and even Spencer have a chance to play this year and prove their skills. The big question I have is how well these guys play when they are faced with starting defenses? How well will they play when defensive coordinators have film on them? Who out of this core group is going to make it and who are going to be the busts?
I’m also watching the top tier wide receivers this year. Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Brandon Aiyuk held out for better contracts. Justin Jefferson had an injury plagued 2023. Tyreek Hill is already getting nicked up in the offseason. Are the top receivers going to prove their worth this year? Is there going to be a slowdown in production from all of the holdouts?
Coaching Retreads – Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton, Mike McCarthy, Dennis Allen, Raheem Morris, Dan Quinn, Doug Pederson, Todd Bowles. Andy Reid is the standard for success when hiring a coach who was fired from another team. The rest of these coaches are on their second team trying to find some measure of consistent success. We are at a point where rehires are less common than finding the newest young hotshot coach. Can these guys prove that experience is better, or are they going to prove that the game has started to pass them by?
Of course as the season goes on, so many more stories and questions will come up, and this is where we will address them all!
Week in Review
What happened last week? Who were the big winners? The sorriest losers? Who surprised? Who showed us exactly who they are?
Being the first week of the season, we can’t really dive deep into what happened last week. But I do have a quick observation about this preseason.
It feels like we really didn’t get a chance to see much of any of our favorite teams this preseason. For the most part, coaches kept their starting players on the bench. There were a couple teams with position battles where the starters got a few extra minutes, but for the most part it was a preseason full of backups and roster cuts.
Is this the trend for the future? It’s no secret players are not fans of the preseason. Owners like it because they can charge admission to games and boost their income a bit. There’s constant talk about an 18 game season and this preseason feels like exactly what we would get if that were to happen. It’s just too many games and too many opportunities for injury.
And that’s the biggest reason I think this preseason is the sign of things to come. We finally are going into a regular season without a major injury. This is a very healthy NFL for Week 1. As fans we should be celebrating, even if it made preseason games boring as hell.
Power Rankings
Who is playing the best football right now?
- Cleveland
Cleveland is going to compete for the #1 overall defense again this year. With a healthy Watson back at quarterback, the offense should be able to put up enough points to make this a very dangerous team. - Cincinnati
It’s all about Joe Burrow in the land of Bengals. If he plays at least 15 games this season, they are a playoff team. - Green Bay
The youngest team in the league, they have to build off the momentum from last year. Jordan Love got paid, its time for him to step up and prove he’s the next great quarterback in the storied history of the Packers. - LA Rams
Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford should never be counted out. This is a team that can compete for the NFC West title this year. The question marks are going to be whether the defense can overcome the loss of Aaron Donald and if Cooper Kupp can stay healthy. - Miami
Miami’s record last year against playoff teams was abysmal. But this offense when it’s humming is the best in the NFL. This team could win the AFC East or they could end the season with a top ten pick in the draft. - Buffalo
Buffalo has been the cream of the AFC East for the last four years. This year the Jets and Dolphins are breathing down their neck. Any stumble and this team could find itself scratching and clawing for a playoff berth. That said, any team with Josh Allen and a solid defense is going to win a lot of games. - San Francisco
Offseason issues aside, this roster might have the most talent top to bottom of any in the league. Brock Purdy is going to be one of those quarterbacks who has to prove it every year until he wins a Super Bowl. If the 49ers stumble at the beginning of the season they find themselves chasing the Rams all year. - Baltimore
Lamar Jackson has all of the individual awards. He has the respect of his peers. He is loved by his fans. But he has to win in Kansas City. And not in September. Derrick Henry might be the piece he needs to get over that mountain. - Detroit
Veteran quarterback, fiery coach, playmakers at every position, an improving defense. Try and find the weakness in this team? Oh right, it’s called history. But if the Red Sox and Cubs can break their curses, then Detroit fans can hold out hope this Lions team can finally make it to the Super Bowl. - Kansas City
Yep.
MVP Watch
Who are the players making the best case for the MVP award this year?
- Bijan Robinson/Jahmyr Gibbs
A non quarterback winner? It could happen. Both of these running backs have similar skills and roles in their offenses. I expect each of them to be heavily involved in the passing game and one of these two could join Roger Craig, Marshall Faulk and Christian McCaffrey in the 1,000/1,000 club. - Jordan Love
In the last half of the season, Love’s accuracy finally showed up. This season his efficiency could be off the charts with the receiving weapons he has. He might not have the most yards, but there’s a great chance he’ll lead the league in QBR. - Tua/Tyreek
These two could cancel each other out, or they could elevate each other in this race. Tyreek has a chance to break 2,000 yards if he stays healthy and Tua has enough weapons besides Tyreek to run up record breaking numbers. Unless it snows. Then all bets are off. - Josh Allen
With the loss of Diggs, Josh Allen has the chance to spread the ball around and improve his efficiency as a quarterback. Add to that his running ability and he is the best dual threat quarterback in the NFL right now. - Patrick Mahomes
Best player on the best team, who else is going to compete with that?
Fantasy Focus
Who’s rising? Who’s falling? Who is the best waiver wire pickup?
If you are playing fantasy football this year, you’ve likely already had your draft and are ready for games to start. My only nugget for fantasy players this week is to utilize your IR spot if you can. TJ Hockenson is available in most leagues with an injury designation. If you can go out and grab him and stash him on your IR, you could have a top 5 TE going in to the second half of your season.
Weekly Predictions
Next week’s games, who’s going to win and why?
Jacksonville at Miami
Jacksonville rebuilt their receiver room this offseason and hope to have a more explosive offense now that they have signed Lawrence to a long term contract. But in this case, its not going to be enough to keep pace with the warm weather Dolphins. Does it snow in Florida? Might be the only chance Jaguars fans have this week. Mia 34 – Jax 21
New England at Cincinnati
This is going to be a rough season for Patriots fans. I’m sure Mayo is a good coach and he might eventually find success in New England, but it won’t be this year. That offensive line they showed in the preseason is horrendous and will hold them back all year. Cincinnati is going to enjoy this warmup game to work out the kinks before the rest of their season starts. Cin 29 – NE 9
Arizona at Buffalo
Arizona has been collecting the pieces they need to build a winning franchise. They are going to surprise people this year with how competitive they are with even the top tier teams. This game is going to be much closer than people expect. In a game where one quarterback is going to have to make a play to win in the 4th quarter, I’ll pick Josh Allen over Kyler Murray. Buf 23 – Ari 20
Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Does Pittsburgh have inside knowledge about Atlanta’s personnel now that Arthur Smith is their offensive coordinator? Well, he didn’t know anything about their personnel when he was the head coach, how will he know anything now that he’s gone? Atlanta fans are going to be jumping out of their seats when they see this team play to it’s potential. Atl 35 – Pit 16
Tennessee at Chicago
Caleb Williams is the hype. The Bears are the trendy pick this year. But Tennessee has quietly improved on both sides of the ball. I don’t know if this team is ready to win now, but they have solid playmakers and a young quarterback with more NFL experience than Williams. Overall this Bears team may be more talented, but this is going to be a close game. Chi 23 – Ten 21
Houston at Indianapolis
AFC South divisional battle. I’d say throw out the records, but it’s week one and that’s dumb. Anthony Richardson showed promise early last season as dual threat quarterback. But he was still very raw throwing the ball and struggled to make his second and third reads. CJ Stroud on the other hand looked like a five year pro from the jump. Houston looks like a team on the verge of greatness. Hou 31 – Ind 19
Baltimore at Kansas City
Almost made this my game of the week. But I don’t want to encourage this type of thing from the NFL. I want this game in December when it means more. These two heavyweights deserve to play each other on a muddy/snowy field with playoff positioning on the line. Then again, lets appreciate any time we get to see Lamar and Patrick go head to head. KC 41 – Bal 38
Carolina at New Orleans
Both of these teams could finish the season 5-12 and it’ll be a positive step for Carolina and the end of the Dennis Allen regime in New Orleans. This week New Orleans is going to be the better team. But by the end of the season, Carolina will seem like it’s the team on the rise. NO 19 – Car 17
Minnesota at New York Giants
I think Minnesota is being heavily overlooked this year. If they can get consistent play out of Sam Darnold this offense has enough fire power to keep up with most teams. New York is still searching for an identity. Malik Nabers might be in the running for rookie of the year, but it won’t be enough to push this Giants team into the win column. Min 24 – NYG 13
Denver at Seattle
The homefield advantage in Seattle is the real deal. It’s easy to discount it until you’ve actually experienced it. Bo Nix is going to have a lot of those “first time” moments this year, but starting your NFL career as a visitor to Seattle is just cruel. Sea 27 – Den 17
Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers
Speaking of home field advantages, it’s always nice for the Raiders when they get to visit their home away from home. It’s like crashing on the couch and raiding the fridge when Las Vegas gets to play in Los Angeles. Harbaugh might be able to turn around the Chargers in time, but it won’t be this year. LV 26 – LAC 20
Dallas at Cleveland
Of all the first games Dallas could have pulled, this might be the biggest mismatch for them. Their offensive line is still trying to find their way and now they have to block Myles Garrett and the rest of that defense? Dallas should be happy enough to leave Cleveland healthy and forget about going for the W. Cle 23 – Dal 17
Washington at Tampa Bay
Jayden Daniels debut will be against Baker Mayfield. Maybe after the game they can discuss how to meet the high expectations that come with being the “savior” of a franchise. Baker seems happier and more comfortable now that he’s escaped that burden and can just play as part of a team. It’s going to be a rough season for Daniels, but he’ll be fun to watch. TB 31 – Was 16
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit
Rematch from last year’s playoffs. Rematch of the QB swap that launched both of these franchises. Preview of an NFC Title game? Maybe. Det 41 – LAR 30
New York Jets at San Francisco
The Offseason Drama Game. The 49ers look to be past all of their contract issues, but are they going to be rusty after stars Aiyuk and Trent Williams missed the whole offseason? Aaron Rodgers still holds a grudge against the 49ers for not drafting him, so can we expect a big game from the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets? I think so. NJY 30 – SF 21
Game of the week:
Green Bay at Philadelphia (in Brazil)
There were a lot of great games this week, but this one has the most interest for me even beyond the fact that it’s the first NFL game in Brazil. We have two teams that had drastically opposing finishes to their 2023 season. Two teams that have Super Bowl aspirations this year, but still have fatal flaws that could keep them out of the playoffs. Here we go:
The Sirianni, Hurts, Moore triangle needs to prove they can fix this offense. Individually, they all had disappointing ends to their 2023 season. If they can’t figure out a way to work together for team goals and continue to work on individual success, this team is going to collapse. The Eagles also struggled mightily on defense at the end of last year. Vic Fangio needs to get this unit refocused and aggressive. If this season ends without a playoff win, could Sirianni be fired? They fired Doug Pederson.
Jordan Love got paid like a superstar after only about 8 games of quality quarterback play. He looks like the real deal, and the Packers surged at the end of the season to make the playoffs and beat Dallas in Dallas. How will this team handle the expectations that come with that success? Youth is great, but sometimes you need those vets on the team to keep everyone grounded.
I think Love and the Packers offense are going to challenge the Eagles defense and pick on the rookies in their secondary. Kellen Moore likes to put up a lot of points so this could end up being a shootout where the last possession wins it. But I’m giving the edge to the Packers in this game. I think their defense makes a few more plays. GB 38 – Phi 27
Well that’s it for Week 1. Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!