We’ve reached the quarter point of the season and the first bye weeks are starting. What have we learned so far? Mostly that the experts have no idea who is going to be good and who is going to be bad until the games are actually played.

Offense is weird this year. Yards seem to be normal, but points are down. Teams are opting for long field goals way more than in the past five to ten years. Very few quarterbacks are willing to challenge the defense vertically. Completion percentage appears to be more important than chunk plays.

We’ve seen the return of the power running game. Running backs are having a resurgence. The teams that are consistently winning have very good running games. Teams are using their quarterbacks in the running game more and more. The time of the pocket passer might be coming to an end.

Defenses are still behind the offenses, but the gap is narrowing. Teams are loading up the box to overwhelm the offensive line and stop the running game. For the most part, defenses aren’t afraid of quarterbacks who try to throw the ball down the field.

It’s early yet, we’ll see if these trends continue.

Stories I’m Following

Davante Adams has asked for a trade. There are rumors all over the NFL about players that could be available, or maybe should be available. The NFL generally has not had a big trade deadline market. The game planning and team building that happens in the offseason just can’t be replicated midseason.

And there are so very few players who can just jump to another team and keep playing without missing a beat. Having to learn assignments, build chemistry, and gaining the trust of the team and coaching staff doesn’t happen overnight. So even if a player is traded midseason, they very rarely make an impact for several weeks after.

So we’ll keep an eye on players like Adams, maybe Bryce Young, maybe even Tyreek Hill. Maybe this year will be different. Maybe there will be a shift in power at the trade deadline.

Week in Review

• What happened last week? Who were the big winners? The sorriest losers? Who surprised? Who showed us exactly who they are?
• Can the Cowboys defense survive these injuries? Can the Cowboys payroll afford to bring in reinforcements?
• New Orleans gave up a pick six and a fumbled punt in the endzone, and still had the lead with less than a minute to go – maybe the defense needs a little more love?
• I’m not going to judge Jordan Love on his 3 interceptions without appreciating the job he did to get the Packers back in the game. When you are playing that desperately you take the good with the bad.
• What’s the over/under on how long Aaron Rodgers’ cadence will be in the first quarter in London?
• Jalen Hurts waited until the score was 0-24 before getting a first down. Maybe he’s just bored and looking for a challenge each week?
• 4,000 yards Chicago fans?
• Two hands on the ball George Pickens
• Will Burrow break records this year knowing his offense will have to score 30+ a game just to keep up with his defense?
• 38 first downs for Seattle in a loss, what a crazy game
• 18/18 for Jared Goff and it wasn’t a perfect passer rating? What’s the point of the rating system then?
• Can the Raiders really believe they are a better team without Davante Adams?

Power Rankings

Who is playing the best football right now?

This week wasn’t nearly as tough trying to figure out who the top ten teams are. I think we are starting to see a few teams separate themselves from the pack. Seattle was the one team I felt deserved a spot in the top ten but there just wasn’t enough room. I think we’ll see them there next week.

How good does the NFC North look right now? I’ve got three teams in the top ten and Chicago is moving up the list. The AFC East and the AFC South might be the most disappointing divisions right now. The Jaguars, the Jets, and the Dolphins all looked like potential playoff teams during the offseason. Now they are a combined 3-9.

And think about this, Dallas, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Atlanta, New Orleans, Los Angeles and Chicago might all be competing for the final Wild Card spot this year.

10. Washington
    Jayden Daniels is getting all the press, but the engine of this team is Brian Robinson Jr. The defense hasn’t been great, but good enough. But when I look at this team, I can’t help seeing the team’s they’ve beaten. Let’s see how these guys look against top talent before we crown them division champs.
11. Pittsburgh
    A little stumble in Indianapolis, but it might have been good for this team. This is a lunchbox team. They are going to win when they outhustle and out-effort the other team. They don’t have the talent on either side of the ball to take games off and still win.
12. Tampa Bay
    Right now, this team is playing as good as Baker Mayfield plays. That is not going to be a recipe for long term success. They have a playmaker in the backfield, Bucky Irving, who could give them the consistent run game they need. He just needs more opportunity.
13. Green Bay
    The loss to Minnesota was tough, but it set up this offense to thrive going forward. Jordan Love was able to knock off some rust and test out his knee. Now this team is going to hit on all cylinders and that should be a scary thought for defensive coordinators.
14. Houston
    Winning ugly still counts the same as any other win. This offense is going to continue to struggle until Joe Mixon comes back from injury. They just don’t have the balance they showed the first couple weeks of the season.
15. Baltimore
    This could be the best team in the league. It could also be an average team struggling to make the playoffs. Its the inconsistency they’ve shown so far that keeps them behind the Bills, even after beating them last week. I think they’ve found their identity behind Derrick Henry’s running. If they keep that up, the wins will start coming in bunches.
16. Buffalo
    Buffalo is another team that has looked really good, but it’s been against poor competition. This week will be a test at how well they can bounce back after a pretty thorough beating.
17. Minnesota
    I’m not in love with how this team played the fourth quarter of last week’s game. The play calling was very conservative and the players lost their urgency. If they start thinking they can win without maximum effort, the great start to this season will be for naught.
18. Detroit
    When this offense is clicking I don’t think there is a defense that can stop them. Seattle has had their number over the past few years, so exorcising that demon is going a long way toward building their confidence. The defense is still a question mark, but these Lions look like they are ready for the top spot on this list soon.
19. Kansas City
    Injuries are mounting. The clock is ticking, that first loss feels closer than ever.

MVP Watch

Who are the players making the best case for the MVP award this year?

5. Jared Goff – it might only be for a week, but perfection needs to be respected.
6. TJ Watt/Fred Warner – gotta keep a defensive presence on this list, but distance between Watt and Warner got a lot closer this week.
7. Saquon Barkley – The more this offense plays, the more I’m convinced the Eagles are 0-4 if Barkley isn’t on the team.
8. Josh Allen – Maybe if he played a few downs on defense he’d get the respect he deserves?
9. Patrick Mahomes – With the injuries piling up, the Chiefs are not going to stay the top team in the league for long. All that means is that his MVP candidacy is going to keep climbing, because who else they got?

Weekly Predictions

New York Jets at Minnesota
I think the Green Bay comeback was enough to wake up this Minnesota team and prevent this being a trap game for them. The Jets defense is good, but this is also a team that was rolled by San Francisco and barely escaped Tennessee with a win. With tension mounting between Rodgers and the coaching staff, what would a loss do to their locker room? This will probably be a low scoring game, but Minnesota will prove they are the better team. MIN 23 – NYJ 13

Carolina at Chicago
Andy Dalton is smiling on the field and having fun. He appreciates the opportunity and knows it might be one of his last chances to be a starter in the league. The offense has looked better, but the defense is still struggling. Chicago is the opposite, Williams looks miserable out there, trying to figure out the pro game. The defense is rock solid while the offense struggles to move the ball. This might be one of those surprise games that ends up being a high flying enjoy to watch. Or maybe it’s a 6-3 snoozefest. CHI 31 – CAR 27

Baltimore at Cincinnati
The Bengal defense is not playing well. They aren’t tackling, they don’t get off their blocks, and they rarely get pressure on the quarterback. Teams that don’t like tackling are going to hate facing Baltimore. BAL 31 – CIN 20

Miami at New England
We know what New England is this year. Big effort, little talent. We know what Miami is – Big talent, little effort. So really this is going to come down to whether or not Mike McDaniel can scheme an offense that will take advantage of his superior talent. Until Tua comes back, we are going to get to see just what kind of coach McDaniel is. He’s been labeled a genius, now is the time to show it. MIA 19 – NE 16

Cleveland at Washington
It’s hard to think of Cleveland as having a mediocre defense and a mediocre running game. But that’s where we are now. I wanted to believe this was a defense that would finally challenge Jayden Daniels but I don’t think it is. He will have to face Myles Garrett and that might force him to run early or throw off schedule, but the Commanders will still score enough to win. WAS 22 – CLE 13

Indianapolis at Jacksonville
The Colts are dealing with injuries to Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. Flacco came in and played admirably last week, but he’s not a dynamic threat like Richardson is. This offense will need to be more traditional for him to have success. If Taylor is out, that’s going to put a lot of pressure on Flacco to win with his arm. Jacksonville played tough last week in Houston. This looks like the moment they finally get off the snide and notch their first win. JAX 26 – IND 23

Buffalo at Houston
These are two heavy hitting offenses with dynamic playmakers. Nico Collins quietly signed an extension this offseason and is proving he’s worth every dollar of it. CJ Stroud hasn’t played quite at the level he was playing at toward the end of last season. It could be that defenses are catching up to him, it could be the lack of running support. But he is going to need to pick up his game if they are going to win against Buffalo. I think the Bills defense is looking to prove something this week after getting embarrassed against the Ravens. BUF 36 – HOU 31

Las Vegas at Denver
Who is playing better football right now? Probably Denver. Who has more playmakers right now? Probably Denver. Who has homefield advantage? Probably Denver. Who owns this series? LV 19 – DEN 17

Arizona at San Francisco
The Cardinals have been disappointing for me the past two weeks. After winning big against the Rams they haven’t looked like a good team on either side of the ball. Division games are always tricky, but the 49ers are fighting to get back to a winning record and Arizona doesn’t look like they are fighting at all. SF 31 – ARI 17

Green Bay at Los Angeles Rams
Sean McVay just doesn’t have the weapons right now to compete. Stafford is getting pressured more, the running game isn’t strong enough to lean on. Green Bay is ready to explode after almost coming back against the Vikings. If Love can keep the turnovers down, this could be a blowout. GB 27 – LAR 20

New York Giants at Seattle
The Giants had a lot of injuries coming out of their matchup with Dallas. Getting a few extra days might have helped, but I don’t know if they are going to have their best playmakers available to them in Seattle. The Seahawks are playing tough and I don’t think the Giants have answers for Metcalf or Walker. SEA 28 – NYG 13

Dallas at Pittsburgh
The Cowboys are playing without their top defensive player, and they already have issues stopping the run. Look for Pittsburgh to play a ball control, run heavy scheme in this one and keep Dak and CeeDee on the bench. When they are on the field, TJ Watt should be able to keep the pressure on Dak and disrupt their passing game. The score might be low, but I don’t think this will be a close game. PIT 20 – DAL 14

New Orleans at Kansas City
Can the Saints’ offensive line handle the Chiefs’ defensive line? The answer to that question will decide who wins this game. If Kamara can find room to run and let Carr utilize the play action pass, the Saints should be able to outscore Mahomes and the Chiefs. If Chris Jones can crash the pocket and prevent the Saints from getting any momentum then the Chiefs will find a way to win the fourth quarter. KC 25 – NO 23

Game of the week:

Tampa Bay at Atlanta
I had Atlanta winning this division. But I don’t think that’s going to happen this year. The offense is sluggish. The defense is starting to play better, and getting Matthew Judon was a big piece of that puzzle. But I think we all had high expectations for Kirk Cousins and he just hasn’t delivered.

I’ve seen some articles talking about Bijan Robinson being a problem for the offense. He’s struggling to find holes, sure, but he’s not the problem. If you watch the film of the game last week he had over fifty yards and a touchdown called back because of penalties. If you are just watching the box score, it might look like he’s not producing.

Cousins on the other hand, is struggling after coming back from his Achilles injury. His throws are often short. His receivers are having to dive for catches., or he’s throwing into coverage and letting defensive backs knock them down. Yards after catch is down because his passes aren’t accurate enough to let his receivers keep running. Maybe he doesn’t have the strength in his legs yet to really drive the football. Maybe he’s struggling with the scheme. Whatever it is, until it’s fixed, this offense will continue to be stuck in slow motion.

Tampa Bay on the other hand is playing fast and loose on offense. The big plays are there, and Baker has great chemistry with both Godwin and Evans. If they can get their running game going, this offense will be tough to scheme against.

The problem with Tampa Bay though, is that they are so dependent on Baker that if he’s having an off night, there’s no one else to step up and help push this team to a victory. The defense doesn’t have a great pass rush, they don’t force a lot of turnovers, and the running game is stuck behind Rashaad White.

On a short week, I think the team that has a more dynamic offense is going to have the best chance to win. If Baker gets off to a quick start, they should be able to handle anything the Falcons throw at them late in the game. TB 34- ATL 24

How are you feeling about bye weeks this early in the season? Throw us a comment or find us on social media and let us know! Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!