Here we are in week fourteen. We have the first teams getting double digit losses on the season. The first division title has been secured. Teams are keeping track of how many wins it will take to get in the playoffs. And that’s the part that makes the next couple of weeks very exciting.

There is a grouping of teams that have been at the top of the standings for the majority of the season. Teams that we’ve come to think of as locks for the postseason. But there’s a small group of teams, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, the NFC West, that are lurking just on the outside. These teams are motivated and they know they have to win out to have a chance. They are dangerous teams that have to play every game with a playoff like intensity.

Not every team ahead of them is going to play with that same vigor. In other words, we could start seeing some upsets in the next couple of weeks. The Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks are in a three way contest to win the NFC West. They are going to beat each other up over the last few weeks, but they also still have tough games against NFC North foes. Indianapolis has a chance at the NFC South title if Houston stumbles. Tampa Bay and Atlanta are going to come down to the wire for the NFC South crown. Tampa also has a head to head victory against Washington if they go on another losing streak.

So no matter how much we think the playoff picture is coming into focus, it can all change in a week.

Tale of the Tape

Here’s a brief rundown of what I saw in last weeks games:

I really wanted to know how the Philadelphia defense could shut down the Baltimore offense. The biggest takeaway I saw was the deep coverage that Philadelphia was using. They gave up the underneath routes and tackled well. So after awhile Lamar Jackson gave up on throwing those routes, he continued to force the ball deep into coverage. The defensive line got great penetration on running plays and got to Henry before he could get downfield momentum. It was a fantastic defensive gameplan.

How in the world did Russell Wilson beat Joe Burrow in a shootout? Easy. The Steelers defense tackled, the Bengals didn’t.

Kyler Murray had three critical mistakes that cost Arizona the game in Minnesota. At the end of the first half, it felt like there was time to try one more play to the end zone rather than letting the clock run down and kick a field goal. His fourth quarter interception was a horrible decision followed by a worse pass. And the intentional grounding penalty when they were at the five yard line. All of those plays potentially cost them points, but definitely cost them momentum.

Seattle’s special teams might have been the worst collection of mistakes I’ve seen in a professional football game.

I didn’t like seeing Houston take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter against Jacksonville. Teams that are trying to win championships don’t let teams back into the game like that.

Kirk Cousins might be done. His accuracy is still there, but his velocity is gone. He has little to no mobility, which tells me his legs just aren’t there anymore. He can’t stretch the field with the long ball, and defenses aren’t afraid to jump his passes.

Bucky Irving is making a case for being the best player on the Buccaneers offense.

That was a great “get back” game for Washington. Confidence builder for an offense that had been struggling.

Power Rankings

Who is playing the best football right now? Last week rank in parenthesis ()

10. Tampa Bay (12)
    Playing to overtime against Carolina might not seem like a reason to move up in the rankings. But bad teams lose that game. Playoff teams find a way to win, and that’s just what this team did.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (9)
    The run defense has started to become a concern. But the offense has found a rhythm in the passing game thanks to McConkey.
12. Baltimore (5)
    Don’t let the scoreboard fool you. Baltimore was outplayed for most of that game last week. I’m really struggling to figure out this team.
13. Pittsburgh (8)
    Since Russell Wilson has taken over, their passing stats are way up. But, their time of possession is down, their number of possessions are up and the defense is slipping. They are winning in the regular season, but the stats that matter in the post season are suffering.
14. Kansas City (4)
    Is it the offensive line that is holding back the offense? Something feels off, the big plays just aren’t there. Does Mahomes have enough around him to win postseason games in the fourth quarter?
15. Minnesota (6)
    Everything is clicking in Minnesota except the running back room. The coaching staff needs to figure something out quick because you can’t win in the post season throwing the ball fifty times.
16. Green Bay (7)
    Josh Jacobs is giving this team balance on offense and a physical mentality. So long as the defense continues to improve, this is a dangerous team come playoff time.
17. Philadelphia (3)
    The biggest hole in this team is their first quarter performance. It’s an absolutely weird phenomenon how much they struggle to score early.
18. Buffalo (2)
    Is the AFC Championship going to be determined by home field advantage? If so, Buffalo can’t afford to rest now that they have clinched the division.
19. Detroit (1)
    Bad time for the injury bug hit. Hopefully, this team can get healthy before the playoffs.

MVP Watch

Who are the players making the best case for the MVP award this year?

5. Joe Burrow – Dude needs some recognition for the season he’s having
6. Baker Mayfield – Getting this Buccaneers team to the playoffs should be enough to keep him in the conversation
7. Lamar Jackson – I’m getting worried that he’s not showing up in the big games
8. Saquon Barkley – Really should be number one in the rankings, but unfortunately he plays the wrong position
9. Josh Allen – Are the Bills serious Super Bowl contenders again?

Weekly Predictions

Next week’s games, who’s going to win and why?

Green Bay at Detroit
The Lions are hurting on defense right now and that has been the weak spot on this team all season long. The Packers offense is starting to impose its will now that they have committed to having a run first identity on offense. Can Detroit stay physical with the Packers for four quarters? I don’t think so. Green Bay will break this game open in the fourth quarter and get the win. GB 29 – DET 24

Jacksonville at Tennessee
Two teams that have played hard all season and just haven’t made the plays to win games. The Tennessee defense started off this year very good, but have fallen off lately. The Jacksonville offense will likely be without Trevor Lawrence after he got knocked out of the game last week. In a game with very little stakes, I’m going to pick the coaching staff that is playing for their jobs. JAX 19 – TEN 17

New York Jets at Miami
How will Miami react to their loss last week? Up to that point they had a chance to get into the playoffs, but now that is all but gone. Are they still motivated to play hard? For this game, a division rival, the answer is yes. MIA 30 – NYJ 17

Atlanta at Minnesota
Kirk Cousins had a bad game last week and it wasn’t a fluke. His velocity is poor and opposing corners and safeties are jumping his passes. Brian Flores’ defense has to be salivating over this matchup. If having his passes intercepted wasn’t bad enough, Cousins is going to struggle to get away from the Vikings pass rush too. MIN 31 – ATL 20

New Orleans at New York Giants
The Saints feel cursed as the injuries continue to pile up. Taysom Hill being lost for the season is a big loss for an offense that is dangerously low on playmakers. The Giants have playmakers, but it feels like this coaching staff has lost the locker room. NO 17 – NYG 13

Carolina at Philadelphia
Since putting Bryce Young back in the starting lineup, the Panthers have been playing much better football. The problem for them is that it hasn’t resulted in very many wins. The Philadelphia defense is challenging to be the best in the league this year. That’s going to be too much for Carolina to deal with. PHI 33 – CAR 16

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Revenge game? Pittsburgh can’t afford to lose twice to the Browns this season. Jameis Winston brings an exciting brand of football, but it isn’t a winning brand. He can hit the big plays, but too often he follows it up with the game killing mistake. But it’s fun to watch! Pittsburgh won’t take them lightly this week. PIT 24 – CLE 20

Las Vegas at Tampa Bay
Antonio Pierce is coaching for his job, and the team is still playing hard for him. But last week against Kansas City was likely the emotional high for this team. I don’t know that they are going to be able to play at that level again this season. Tampa Bay has their sights set on the division title. Bucky Irving is going to run wild through an injury plagued Raider defense. TB 27 – LV 13

Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams
After a horrible start to the season and injuries to their two best playmakers, the Rams find themselves one game out of first in the division. Buffalo on the other hand, just clinched their division last week. Only a crazy person would bet against Josh Allen right? Well call me crazy. The Bills still don’t play their best on the road, and the Rams are starting to put the pieces together on both sides of the ball. LAR 31 – BUF 30

Chicago at San Francisco
McCaffery going back on IR is a huge blow to the 49ers. Not so much on the field though, he hadn’t been playing up to his normal standard. But it will be felt in the locker room for a team where nothing has gone right all season. Chicago is in a similar place, feeling like they should have won several games that slipped away in the last moments. But for Chicago, they are riding the “interim coach bump” this week, and should be in a better mindset than the home team. CHI 23 – SF 20

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City
The Chiefs are a better team than the Chargers. Neither team is playing their best ball right now. Did last week’s game wakeup a sleeping giant in Kansas City, or did it give Jim Harbaugh and his Chargers a blueprint on how to beat the Chiefs? Last season, it was this very game against the Raiders that woke up the Chiefs and put them on their Super Bowl run. KC 29 – LAC 26

Cincinnati at Dallas
I am really struggling to think of a team that has been this good on offense and this bad at defense in the same season. The Bengals secondary was horrendous last week – they couldn’t cover anyone and then they struggled to tackle once the receivers got the ball. That’s great news for CeeDee Lamb who should have a big game this week. But so should Burrow, Chase, and Higgins. In a shootout, I’ll take Burrow over Cooper Rush. CIN 38 – DAL 33

Game of the week

Seattle at Arizona
Very few teams are dysfunctional enough to let the Seahawks win after making so many critical mistakes on special teams. But Seattle did what they’ve done so often this season, play good defense and make just enough plays on offense to win games. Geno Smith has been playing much better over the past month. He’s getting the ball to his receivers and using his legs to extend plays. I would like to see Kenneth Walker III and the running game get on track before I commit to this team as a potential playoff team. But a win this week would give them a huge advantage down the stretch.

This Arizona team is playing fantastic defense. They had Minnesota on the ropes last week. If not for a couple of Kyler Murray mistakes, they could have won. The passing attack hasn’t been stretching defenses vertically. They are hitting tight ends in the flats and wide receivers on crossing patterns. This puts a lot of stress on opposing linebackers to maintain their coverage while also respecting the running game. It should work much better than it has the past two weeks. If they can get Conner running well early this week, the offense should have a much easier time throwing against Seattle’s defense.

Both teams come into the game trying to control the line of scrimmage. It’s going to be a physical battle for all four quarters. Both teams are good at getting pressure on the quarterback, but can Seattle contain the Kyler Murray runs? Seattle has the big play ability with their two receivers, but the Arizona secondary has been playing very well. With two teams that matchup this well, I’m going to lean toward the home team. ARI 27 – SEA 24

Well that’s it for Week 14. Good luck to all of the fanbases out there, and be sure to follow us on Facebook and check out the Gridiron Voice Podcast!